Analyze T J Hockenson's matchup for week 10
Hockenson’s first touchdown since 2024 is encouraging, but he still hasn’t topped 50 yards in any game, works underneath with a tiny aDOT, and draws a middling Ravens defense that’s 12th-best versus TEs—making him a low-floor, TD-dependent desperation play.
Baltimore enters 30th in points allowed (30.0 PPG) and concedes 5.2-51.1-0.21 per game to tight ends, so game-script could push throws, yet their 12th-ranked TE fantasy yield and Hockenson’s microscopic usage keep the ceiling capped.
Back-to-back 6-catch games and a Week 9 touchdown snapped a 19-game scoring drought, but yardage remains stuck below 50 every week and his 5.0 YPT/aDOT profile screams check-down only.
Hockenson’s usage under rookie J.J. McCarthy has settled into a short-area safety-valve role—he’s seen 3-plus targets in seven of eight outings but averages a paltry 5.0 yards per look with an aDOT that rarely stretches past the sticks. That script caps both yardage and after-catch juice; even the recent uptick to six grabs in consecutive weeks produced only 32 and 11 yards. The Ravens aren’t a shutdown matchup—ranking 30th in total points allowed—but their linebacker/safety group has been competent against tight ends, sitting 12th in fantasy points surrendered and allowing just two TE touchdowns over nine games. Baltimore’s vulnerability is on the perimeter and in the red zone, areas dominated by Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, leaving Hockenson scrambling for scraps. Game flow could help if Minnesota falls behind, yet McCarthy’s conservative distribution and the Vikings’ league-average pace keep projection modest. Expect 4-5 catches for 35-45 yards with a 30-35% chance of a touchdown—numbers that land him at TE11-13 on most boards. Unless you’re ravaged by byes or injuries, streaming Dalton Kincaid, Hunter Henry, or even Cade Otton offers a safer floor and comparable upside.