Analyze Rico Dowdle's matchup for week 10
Dowdle’s 18-carry, 5-target role over the last month makes him a volume-proof RB2 even against a top-10 Eagles run defense; the pass-game usage keeps his PPR floor above 12 points.
Philadelphia ranks 6th in red-zone TD rate and top-10 against RBs, but they’ve conceded 5+ catches to pass-catching backs in four of eight games and have been inconsistent overall. Dowdle’s 71 % snap share and 5-target floor offset the tough front, especially with Cooper Rush likely leaning on check-downs while CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott nurse injuries.
Over the last four weeks Dowdle has averaged 18 carries at 5.7 YPC and scored three times while seeing 5 targets in four separate games; his snap share hit a season-high 71.6 % in Week 9.
Volume is king at running back, and Dowdle has it in spades. Since Week 6 he’s handled 73 carries (18.3 per game) and 21 targets, translating to 20-plus touches in three of four outings. That usage mirrors the league’s elite workhorses and is backed by a coaching staff that has fully committed to him after initially splitting work with Ezekiel Elliott. The offensive line’s 4th-ranked run-block win-rate (per PFF) creates ample creases, and Dowdle’s 3.4 yards after contact per attempt shows he’s maximizing those holes. Even if Philadelphia loads the box, his evolved receiving role—he’s run twice as many slot/wide routes as any Cowboys back since Week 6—provides a pressure-proof floor.
Game script also tilts positive. With Cooper Rush under center, Dallas is likely to lean on a conservative, clock-controlling attack that funnels targets to the backs on screens and swing passes. The Eagles’ linebackers have allowed 8.2 yards per target to RBs over the last month (sixth-highest), so the matchup for pass-catching backs is materially softer than the overall run-defense ranking suggests. Add in Dallas’ banged-up receiver corps—CeeDee Lamb’s shoulder could limit his down-field usage—and Dowdle becomes the safest outlet, raising both his target projection and red-zone touch share.
Finally, touchdown equity matters. Dowdle has received 10 of the Cowboys’ 14 carries inside the 10 since Week 6. Philadelphia’s red-zone defense is stingy, but volume trumps efficiency for fantasy; if he sees two-plus goal-line carries and five targets, he only needs modest efficiency to return low-end RB1 numbers. Bench him only if you’re stacked at RB—otherwise lock him in as a high-floor, high-ceiling RB2.