Analyze Quentin Johnston's matchup for week 10
Despite Pittsburgh ranking 12th-most generous to WRs, Johnston’s target share has collapsed (zero Week 8 looks) and rookie TE Oronde Gadsden is stealing snaps, making him a bench-only option unless you’re absolutely desperate.
The Steelers’ secondary has allowed 23.7 fantasy points per game to wide receivers and six TDs through eight weeks, creating a paper-soft matchup. Johnston’s down-field skill-set should exploit Pittsburgh’s occasional coverage busts, yet that only matters if Justin Herbert actually looks his way—something that hasn’t happened since early October.
After a 26-377-4 opening month Johnston has cratered to 6-70-1 over the last three games, including the first zero-target outing of his career in Week 8, while rookie TE Oronde Gadsden’s emergence has quietly shoved the second-year wideout into fantasy after-thought territory.
Quentin Johnston’s 2025 campaign is the classic tale of a talent-rich prospect undone by evaporating opportunity. Through Week 4 he sat as fantasy’s WR22, averaging 75 yards a game and commanding a hearty 23 % target share while stretching the field for four scores. Since then the floor has fallen out: a balky hamstring cost him Week 6, and in the three surrounding contests he’s drawn just 11 targets, turning them into a meager 70 yards and one TD. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman has shifted to quicker, middle-of-field concepts to counter heavy blitz looks, a schematic pivot that de-emphasizes Johnston’s vertical tree and instead funnels work to Keenan Allen, Ladd McConkey and now the 6-5 tight end Gadsden, who exploded for 164 yards against Indianapolis. The result is a target hierarchy that no longer guarantees Johnston even a secondary read, rendering matchup strength largely moot.
Pittsburgh’s defensive numbers suggest a get-right spot on the surface—the Steelers surrender the 12th-most fantasy points to wideouts (165.9 total, 1,278 yards, 6 TDs) and have allowed 20-plus points to the position in back-to-back weeks. Their outside corners have struggled with vertical communication, giving up completions of 40-plus yards in four of the last five games. Johnston’s 4.4 speed and 21.3 yards-per-catch average from September indicate he can punish those lapses if given runway. The problem is runway requires protection, and Herbert’s 2.3-second average time-to-throw over the last month ranks bottom-eight league-wide. With Pittsburgh likely deploying simulated pressures to force the ball out quickly, Johnston’s intermediate-to-deep routes may again be ancillary rather than primary.
Fantasy managers should therefore treat Johnston as a boom-or-bench option whose floor is literal zero targets. In 12-team leagues with three-start WR slots he sits squarely outside the top 45, trailing steadier week-to-week pieces like Josh Palmer, Tre Harris or even the rising Keandre Lambert-Smith. Only in 14-team formats or deep-flex desperation should you gamble on the theoretical spike, and even then you’re betting on game-script shootout and a schematic course-correction rather than evidence-based usage. Until Roman re-establishes Johnston as a featured read—and Herbert proves willing to pull the trigger—keep him stapled to your bench and monitor usage trends before considering re-insertion down the stretch.