Analyze Puka Nacua's matchup for week 10
Nacua has re-established himself as the Rams’ target hog with a season-best 13 looks and 148 yards in Cincinnati, exploiting single-high looks and a condensed WR corps while drawing three straight bottom-10 slot defenses; fire him up as a high-floor WR2 with WR1 upside this week and beyond.
The Bengals’ heavy single-high shell and bottom-five press rate let Nacua run free into intermediate crossers and deep overs, producing a week-high 2.48 yards per route and 11.0 aDOT. With Cooper Kupp on a pitch count and Tutu Atwell benched, Nacua slid into the “F” spot 46% of snaps, handling 28% of targets and all 2-minute drill work. Cincinnati’s blitz-heavy approach (39%) was neutralized by quick 2.34-second throws, allowing Nacua to turn 13 targets into 9-148-1 against a corner group that rarely challenged him inside 10 yards.
Three-week climb: 63% → 69% → 79% snap share, 31 targets for 20-291-2 (19.3 HPPR), and season-high 173 air yards last week.
Nacua’s post-bye usage arc is exactly what fantasy managers drafted him for. After a quiet Week 8, his snap rate has jumped 16 percentage points while his target share has re-entered the 28-30% band he owned early season. The Rams’ shift to condensed 11-personnel (80% WR snaps) means those targets are locked in even when Kupp returns, because McVay is limiting Kupp to situational duty and has benched Atwell for ball-security reasons. Over the last three games Nacua is averaging 2.48 yards per route, a top-five mark among wideouts, and his 1.65 fantasy points per route run show the efficiency is back after a mid-season lull.
Looking forward, the schedule is a fantasy cheat-code. Baltimore in Week 11 allows a league-worst 9.4 yards per target to inside receivers and rarely shadows with Marlon Humphrey out of the slot. Week 12’s Bears give up the 6th-most slot fantasy points and will keep top corner Jaylon Johnson outside, leaving Nacua against rookies Gordon and Bounds. Week 13 versus Arizona is another slot funnel, so double-digit target ceilings are realistic through Thanksgiving. The only land-mine is a Week 15 date at San Francisco, but that is after three straight plus-matchups and two useful weeks of byes where Nacua can single-handedly swing playoff odds.
Bank the volume, bank the efficiency, bank the schedule. Bench him only if you own three top-12 wideouts, and even then you’ll probably start him in the flex. He’s a locked-in WR2 with weekly WR1 upside until the Rams face shadow coverage in San Francisco.