Analyze Nick Chubb's matchup for week 10
Nick Chubb’s 3.6 YPC, career-low burst, and a 50/50 timeshare with the more explosive Woody Marks turn a middling Jaguars run defense into a stay-away spot; he’s touchdown-dependent with no 12-plus-yard runs in five games and should ride your bench.
Jacksonville has allowed the 8th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to RBs, but most damage has come via receiving backs—an area where rookie Woody Marks (108 routes) has lapped Chubb (86). The Jags’ 3.8 YPC allowed and red-zone stinginess depresses Chubb’s already touchdown-dependent ceiling, while Houston’s bottom-third run-blocking line means the ex-Brown is regularly contacted behind the line. Projected as slight favorites, the Texans should lean run, yet the split backfield and negative game-script risk keep Chubb’s volume capped at 10-12 low-efficiency touches.
Over the last five games Chubb has averaged 3.6 YPC, zero runs over 12 yards, a 36-51% snap share, and a career-worst 2.07 yards after contact per attempt, ceding both explosiveness and passing-down work to Woody Marks.
Nick Chubb’s 2025 tape reads like a medical textbook on post-ACL decline: the burst that once turned gap runs into 60-yard explosives is gone, replaced by hesitation at the line and immediate contact. PFF charting shows 42% of his carries have met a defender in the backfield—sixth-worst among 41 qualifiers—yet his missed-tackle rate (0.08 per attempt) is dead last, meaning he can’t create yards even when blocking is adequate. The Texans’ offensive line ranks 27th in adjusted line yards (3.7) and 30th in power success, so the environment is toxic for any runner, but Marks’ superior receiving chops (7.2 YPR vs 5.1 for Chubb) tether the veteran to early-down work only. Against Jacksonville that matters: the Jaguars’ 6.2 yards per target to backs is 5th-highest, but their yards per carry (3.8) is 7th-lowest, a split that funnels usage to Marks in negative or neutral scripts.
The macro picture is equally bleak for fantasy managers. Houston enters Week 10 at 4-5 and chasing a playoff berth, so coaching incentives favor hot-hand approach over sentimentality; Bobby Slowik has used the phrase “game-plan dependent” in three straight pressers, coach-speak for a near 50/50 split that caps anyone’s ceiling. Even red-zone opportunities are shared—inside the 10, Marks has 12 carries to Chubb’s 11 this season, and the rookie converted three to Chubb’s one. With four teams (CIN, TEN, DAL, KC) on bye, streaming options like Devin Singletary (vs CLE), Tyjae Spears (vs DEN) or even a returning Zack Moss offer higher touch floors and more pass-game juice. Unless you’re in a 14-team league with two injured starters, benching Chubb is the only rational path; his range of outcomes is 6-9 PPR points without a TD and 12-15 with one, a profile that loses start-ability in almost every league size.
Finally, dynasty GMs should view this week as confirmation of what the film and metrics scream: the 29-year-old’s days as a serviceable fantasy asset are over. A 2026 cap hit north of $10 million and the presence of a cheap, productive rookie make Chubb a prime cut candidate next spring, and his athletic profile—already in the 16th percentile among 2025 backs in PlayerProfiler’s Burst Score—will only erode further. Treat any lineup usage in 2025 as a last-resort flex and plan your offseason accordingly; the name value that once anchored championship squads is now a sunk-cost relic.