Analyze Michael Penix's matchup for week 10
Michael Penix Jr. is a recommended start for Week 10 after posting a career-best 3-TD game in Week 9 and drawing a generous Colts pass defense that ranks 17th in QB fantasy points allowed.
The Falcons’ second-year signal-caller faces a Colts secondary that has surrendered 14 passing TDs and 20 completions of 20-plus yards this season. With Drake London and Darnell Mooney back healthy and Atlanta’s line allowing only eight sacks in Penix’s starts, the matchup sets up for another multi-touchdown, 18-20-point fantasy outing in the neutral-site Berlin game.
Penix is ascending: he just delivered the first 3-TD game of his career (22/37, 221 yd, 3 TD vs NE) and has now thrown five TDs against three INTs through six 2025 starts while completing 61% of his passes.
Michael Penix Jr. enters Week 10 on a clear upward trajectory. After missing Week 8 with a knee bone bruise, he responded with the most efficient performance of his young NFL career, tossing three touchdowns to Drake London and displaying the anticipation and pocket poise the Falcons have waited to see. The 22-of-37, 221-yard line does not jump off the page, but the context—his first career three-score game, coming off injury, against a Bill Belichick-coached defense—underscores legitimate week-to-week growth. Through six starts in 2025 he is averaging 235 yards and has trimmed turnover-worthy plays, a sign that Atlanta’s run-heavy, play-action attack is successfully speeding up his developmental clock.
The matchup in Berlin could not come at a better time. Indianapolis owns one of the league’s most exploitable secondaries, ranking 17th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (16.7 per game) while giving up 14 touchdowns and a 65% completion rate. The Colts’ pass rush has been equally benign, posting only 26 sacks (tied for 23rd) through nine games. With Atlanta’s offensive line surrendering just eight sacks when Penix starts, the second-year quarterback should have the cleanest pocket he has seen since taking over the job. Add in the return of Darnell Mooney to stretch the field horizontally and Drake London’s red-zone dominance (three scores last week), and the Falcons finally have the full complement of weapons needed to stress every level of a defense.
Game script also tilts toward Penix’s fantasy ceiling. Installed as 3-point underdogs, Atlanta is likely to chase points, producing a 34-to-36 pass-attempt range that would be the high-water mark of Penix’s young starting tenure. Expect offensive coordinator Zac Robinson to lean on play-action (Falcons are top-10 in play-action rate) that exploits Indianapolis’ over-aggressive linebackers, creating free access for London on slants and deep crossers. Even if the Colts bottle up Bijan Robinson on early downs, the back’s presence keeps linebackers honest and should spring 2–3 shot-play opportunities down the right hash where Indy has allowed the most 20-plus-yard completions. All told, Penix profiles as a high-floor QB2 with top-12 upside for the week and is an easy streaming call in 12-team redraft formats and a must-start in Superflex and 2-QB leagues.