Analyze Michael Mayer's matchup for week 10
With Brock Bowers sidelined, Michael Mayer steps into a every-down role against a Denver defense that’s allowed 8.1 PPR/G to tight ends; expect 4-6 targets and red-zone work, making him a quality streamer.
Denver enters Thursday night 18th in TE fantasy points allowed, bleeding 8.1 PPR per game and struggling with physical 1-on-1 winners over the middle. Mayer’s 6-4/256 frame, contested-catch profile and likely 80-plus-percent snap share line up perfectly with the Broncos’ primary coverage weakness. On a short week, the Raiders’ up-tempo attack under Chip Kelly should keep the tight end involved as a safety valve for Geno Smith, giving Mayer a realistic 45-60-yard floor and a red-zone look or two.
Since returning from concussion he’s posted a touchdown on 81% snap share and now inherits starter volume for the first time since his promising 2023 rookie campaign.
Opportunity is the lifeblood of fantasy tight ends, and Mayer just received a season’s worth overnight. Brock Bowers’ knee injury locks the 2023 second-rounder into an every-down role that produced 27-304-2 when he was a featured piece last year. The coaching staff has already shown trust, playing him on 81% of snaps against Tennessee, and Chip Kelly’s history with athletic move tight ends (see: Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert) suggests designed middle-field isolations and play-action glance routes will be part of the script.
Denver’s defense tightened up early down the stretch, but advanced metrics still rank them 23rd in yards per target (7.6) and 25th in TD rate (6.9%) allowed to tight ends. Their linebacking core lacks length—no starter over 6-3—while safety help must respect Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers outside, creating natural one-on-one windows for Mayer at 12-15 yards. On a short week, those hi-low rub concepts are high-percentage, low-variance calls for an offense that wants to control clock and keep Russell Wilson off the field.
Fantasy managers chasing ceiling will always prefer Bowers, but floor matters more at a position where 8–10 points is a win. Mayer’s 4-6 target projection keeps him inside the weekly top-12, and his 25% share of the team’s inside-the-20 targets last season shows scoring juice. Plug him in as a low-end TE1 with legitimate 15-point upside should he find pay-dirt; he’s the rare Week 10 plug-and-play who costs nothing and carries almost zero downside in 12-team formats.