Analyze Matthew Stafford's matchup for week 10
Stafford is scorching-hot with 6 TDs, 1 INT over his last three games and draws a 49ers defense that’s hemorrhaging 19.2 FPPG to QBs and has just one interception all year; the division stakes and prior 389-yard effort against them make him a locked-in QB1 this week.
San Francisco’s once-dominant defense now sits 16th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and has given up 13 passing TDs while recording only one pick. They’ve been especially vulnerable to deep shots, ranking poorly in yards per attempt surrendered—music to Stafford’s ears, as he ranks eighth league-wide at 7.8 YPA. In the Week 5 overtime loss Stafford still carved them up for 389 yards, and with the Rams’ retooled line only allowing five sacks in the last three games, protection shouldn’t be an issue. The 49ers’ pass rush has been hit-or-miss, and their banged-up secondary will be without a key starter, tilting the matchup even further toward Los Angeles.
Over his last three contests Stafford has completed 67% of his passes for 774 yards and a 6-to-1 TD-INT ratio, posting a triple-digit passer rating in four of his past six outings.
Stafford’s mid-season renaissance looks legitimate rather than a small-sample mirage. At 37 he’s pacing the NFL in deep-ball accuracy, and the rapport he’s built with Davante Adams and Puka Nacua has turned the Rams’ offense into a big-play juggernaut. The offensive line’s improved communication has dropped his pressure rate by nearly eight percent since Week 6, allowing longer-developing routes to flourish. Facing a 49ers secondary that’s allowing the fourth-most completions of 20-plus yards, Stafford’s aggressive mindset should translate to chunk gains and red-zone opportunities.
Beyond the statistics, narrative and context sharpen this play. The Rams and Niners are separated by half a game in the standings; a Stafford win reclaims the head-to-head tiebreaker and swings division control back to L.A. Stafford has historically performed well in statement games—his 92.6 career passer rating in prime-time spots is nearly five points higher than his daytime mark—and Sean McVay is 7-3 when scheming against San Francisco since 2020. Expect a pass-heavy script early to exploit the 49ers’ linebackers in coverage, followed by play-action daggers once Los Angeles establishes a lead.
Finally, game environment points to shootout potential. The total opened at 50.5 with the Rams as slight road favorites, indicating books anticipate points. Stafford has cleared 20 fantasy points in four straight games that featured totals of 48 or higher, and San Francisco’s offense, even at less than full strength, can keep pace enough to keep the Rams’ foot on the accelerator. All arrows—trend, matchup, motivation, and Vegas—point toward another ceiling outing for the veteran signal-caller.