Mark Andrews is a buy-low TE1 against Minnesota — Here’s a full matchup breakdown, projection, and start/sit outlook versus the Vikings

Analyze Mark Andrews's matchup for week 10

TL;DR ✅ START

Andrews’ 7 TDs in his last 10 games and 79.7 % catch rate offset the modest 4.1 targets per game, while Minnesota’s LB corps has leaked production to athletic tight ends all year, making him a locked-in top-10 play for Week 10.


Matchup Overview

The Vikings grade 13th in fantasy points allowed to TEs but have been beaten regularly by high-end talents (T.J. Hockenson just posted top-12 numbers on them). Baltimore’s offense uses 12-personnel heavily in positive scripts, and Minnesota’s man-heavy scheme leaves linebackers isolated on intermediate routes—exactly where Andrews wins at 9.9-yard aDOT.


Recent Trend

Over his last 10 outings Andrews has 38-472-7 (12.4 YPR) and has scored in 5 of his past 8, leading all NFL tight ends with 11 TDs in 2024 despite a career-low 4.1 targets per game.


Deep Dive Analysis

Efficiency, not volume, drives Andrews’ value: his 15.9 % TD rate and 9.8 YPT are career highs, and the Ravens remain a red-zone funnel for their tight ends—Andrews’ 16 RZ looks still rank top-10 at the position. Minnesota’s linebackers have allowed 10 catches on 12 throws of 10-15 air yards to TEs this year, and Flores’ pressure-heavy fronts force single coverage on inside routes, a perfect spot for Andrews’ 6’5" frame and nuanced route pacing. Game script projects positive with Baltimore favored, and Andrews has historically been a bankable floor play when the Ravens operate with a lead, seeing a 25 % target share in those scripts since 2022. Finally, public perception still prices him as a mid-TE2 after the slow volume start, so fantasy managers get elite touchdown equity at a discounted market cost—exactly the profile that wins leagues at the thinnest fantasy position.