Analyze Lamar Jackson's matchup for week 10
Lamar Jackson looked fully healthy in a four-TD return versus Miami and now faces a Vikings defense that bleeds 6.3 yards per carry to quarterbacks—fire him up as a top-three QB play in Week 10.
Jackson’s first game back was vintage 2023 form: 18-of-23 for 204 yards and 4 TDs plus zero turnovers. Minnesota blitzes at one of the league’s highest rates (Flores factor) but has surrendered 250.7 pass yards a game and the second-most QB rushing yards (6.3 YPC). At home the Vikings tighten a bit (220 pass yds allowed), yet their aggressive fronts create natural scramble lanes for an athlete who’s still averaging 11.0 YPA when on the field. Game script projects close—Baltimore –3.5—so Jackson won’t be game-planned out early, and a mini-bye after the Thursday win should leave the shoulder 100 percent.
Since Week 6 he’s averaging 11.0 YPA with a 143 passer rating in his lone full contest; rushing usage is being managed but still produced key first downs against Miami.
Jackson’s renaissance is less comeback story than reminder—when healthy he’s the fantasy cheat-code we drafted. The shoulder injury that sidelined him three weeks appears resolved: velocity on intermediate outs returned versus Miami and he showed no hesitation lowering his shoulder on a third-quarter scramble. Baltimore’s re-tooled pass protection (Morgan Moses at RT, rookie Mims at LG) has stabilized enough to keep him upright against pressure looks, critical because Flores sends five or more on 46 % of downs. Expect Greg Roman to counter with heavy 12-personnel, sucking in linebackers before play-action posts to Zay Flowers and deep overs by Andrews—routes that historically shred Cover-1 heavy schemes like Minnesota’s. On third-and-medium, designed quarterback draws are almost guaranteed; the Vikings allowed rushing TDs to QBs in three of their last four home dates. Finally, weather is a non-issue in the dome, eliminating wind concerns that have capped Jackson’s ceiling in late-season outdoor games. All arrows point to 250-plus passing yards, 2-3 TDs through the air, 40-50 rushing yards and a floor no lower than QB5—exactly the kind of league-winning upside you can’t leave on your bench.