Analyze Ladd Mcconkey's matchup for week 10
Quiet box scores aside, McConkey owns a 26% target share and 93% route rate while Pittsburgh is likely without top CB Joey Porter Jr. and slot man Beanie Bishop. Expect 7-9 looks in a clean-pocket, quick-game plan that should return low-end WR2 numbers.
McConkey’s usage is rock-solid (26% targets, 93% route rate, 91% snaps) and Pittsburgh’s secondary is limping in without CB1 Joey Porter (concussion) and possibly slot corner Beanie Bishop (ankle). When Porter missed Weeks 6-8 the Steelers allowed 72% completions and 8.3 YPA to inside/outside hybrids—McConkey’s exact profile. L.A.’s sixth-best pressure rate allowed (17.8%) keeps Herbert clean for the quick crosses and option sits that feed the rookie, and Vegas’ 42.5-point total with LAC –3.5 projects a competitive game script that supports 32-35 pass attempts.
Three-week stat line looks dull (6-74, 4-52, 3-31), but snap/route share keeps climbing (78% → 91%), target share sits at 26%, and Herbert’s 112.4 passer rating when throwing his way leads the team. Zero touchdowns on 22 targets screams positive regression.
The box-score skepticism is understandable—McConkey hasn’t scored since Week 6 and hasn’t topped 74 yards in three games—but every peripheral metric shouts buy. His snap and route participation are peaking, his 27.5% air-yard share and 10.0 aDOT mirror last year’s breakout tape, and he’s yet to drop a pass. Pittsburgh’s pass defense is respectable on paper (11th in DVOA) but the current construction is vulnerable. Without Porter the Steelers leaned into zone looks that Amon-Ra St. Brown and J-SNJ exploited for 100-yard days, and a limited Minkah Fitzpatrick is one step slower on in-breakers. Add in Beanie Bishop’s questionable ankle and McConkey’s 61% slot alignment should find free access on shallow crossers and option sits—exactly the concepts Greg Roman has leaned on during the Chargers’ quietly increased 55% pass rate over the last month. L.A.’s offensive line has been stellar at protecting Herbert (fourth-quickest time-to-throw, sixth-lowest pressure rate), negating some of T.J. Watt’s game-wrecking ability and ensuring the quick-hit looks reach their intended target. Touchdown variance is the only thing holding McConkey back; inside the 20 he’s still commanding a 22% target share, so positive regression feels overdue. Fantasy-wise that equates to a rock-solid 7-9 target floor, 5-6 grabs, 65-75 yards and a roughly one-in-three shot at six points. In 12-team formats that’s an easy WR2 start, and in 10-team leagues he should out-produce middling options like a matchup-burdened DK Metcalf or a target-competed Jordan Addison. Sit only if your roster is absolutely loaded with top-15 receivers or if Porter and Bishop shockingly return to full health by the weekend—otherwise lock him into lineups and enjoy the ceiling that comes with heavy volume against a beat-up secondary.