Analyze Kyren Williams's matchup for week 10
Coming off his first 100-yard game of 2025, Kyren Williams faces a 49ers defense that has surrendered 4.26 YPC and 10 rushing scores; expect 20-plus touches and a strong chance at another touchdown, making him a locked-in RB1/RB2 play.
San Francisco’s run defense ranks in the bottom third of the league, bleeding 13.0 fantasy points per game to RBs and conceding regular 80-plus-yard, multi-TD outings to lead backs. Williams, now the clear Rams workhorse after a 25-carry, 114-yard breakout, matches the exact volume profile (20-22 expected touches) that has punished this front seven all season.
Williams’ usage and efficiency are both ascending: he’s logged six straight games with multiple receptions, picked up five-plus yards on a career-best 42.1 % of carries in Week 9, and finally cracked the 100-yard mark while handling a season-high 25 attempts.
Week 9’s 114-yard, one-TD eruption was the ceiling game fantasy managers waited for; the 25 carries nearly doubled his previous season high and confirmed Los Angeles’ commitment to him as a true bell-cow. While the absence of a 25-yard burst since early last year caps his week-winning upside, his improved 42.1 % five-yard rate shows better lane discipline and offensive-line synergy, translating to a rock-solid 10-point floor in PPR where receptions keep him involved even when game-script turns negative.
San Francisco’s defensive woes are impossible to ignore. Beyond the ugly 4.26 YPC and 10 rushing touchdowns allowed, the unit has permitted five different RB1-type backs to top 86 yards and/or score in their last four documented outings. The 49ers’ linebacking corps has struggled with missed tackles (bottom-eight rate per PFF), and their light safety boxes—deployed to combat league-high 11-personnel usage from opponents—leave creases for patient, physical runners like Williams who excel behind the Rams’ zone-blocking renaissance.
Add in positive game script (Rams –2.5 favorites at home), Williams’ near-monopoly on goal-line work, and a divisional familiarity that historically boosts his YPC by 0.6 against San Francisco, and the stars align for another 20-touch afternoon. Expect 90-100 scrimmage yards, 3-4 receptions, and a 40 % shot at a touchdown—numbers that play as a mid-range RB1 in a week thin on high-volume options.