Analyze Kyle Pitts's matchup for week 10
Pitts draws a Colts defense allowing the 4th-most TE fantasy points, and with 26 targets over his last three games and only one sub-7.7-point outing all year, he’s a locked-in low-end TE1 with top-five upside this week.
Indianapolis has bled production to tight ends all season, surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points to the position thanks to shaky linebacker coverage and inconsistent safety play that leaves the middle of the field open. Atlanta has re-balanced its offense around Kirk Cousins, and Pitts’ 6'6" frame is finally seeing consistent red-zone looks, setting up a ceiling week against a defense that has yet to find an answer for athletic pass-catching tight ends.
Upward: TE12 on the year, 26 targets in the last three games, and only one weekly score below 7.7 fantasy points as his chemistry with Cousins keeps growing.
After two lost seasons Pitts has re-emerged as a trustworthy fantasy asset by trading ceiling for floor; he’s yet to post an elite TE1 week but has delivered usable numbers in eight of nine games, a godsend for a position defined by volatility. The Colts’ generosity to tight ends isn’t a one-off—linebackers have struggled with assignment discipline and both starting safeties rank bottom-ten in yards per coverage snap allowed to TEs, creating the exact intermediate crossers and seam looks that Atlanta has built into its game plan. Expect Cousins to keep funneling 7-9 targets Pitts’ way, and with Atlanta implied for 25-plus points, touchdown probability spikes for a player whose red-zone usage has ticked upward each of the last four weeks. Fire him up as a low-end TE1 who could easily finish top-five at the position in Week 10.