Analyze Kyle Monangai's matchup for week 10
After a 198-yard, 22.8-point explosion in Week 9, Monangai faces a Giants defense that has surrendered the 3rd-most RB fantasy points and ranks near the bottom in yards after contact allowed; even if D’Andre Swift returns, the rookie’s efficiency and fresh legs keep him locked in as a high-floor, high-ceiling RB2.
New York’s front seven has bled production to backs all year—allowing multiple 100-yard rushers and consistent receiving work—while Monangai’s 5.3 YPC and league-leading 106 yards-after-contact in Week 9 align perfectly with their tackling woes. The Giants’ gap-discipline issues and 74% missed-tackle rate over the last month set up Monangai’s punishing, tackle-breaking style for another 100-total-yard day and a 60% shot at a touchdown even in a timeshare.
Volume and efficiency both spiking: 46% snaps in Week 7 → 74% in Week 9, averaging 6.8 YPC and forcing 12 missed tackles on only 58 carries—numbers that forced the coaching staff to keep him on the field even if Swift is active.
Monangai’s breakout was no one-off; the rookie’s snap share, touch count, and yards-after-contact have risen every week, culminating in a 29-touch, 198-yard dismantling of Cincinnati. That performance graded as the best by any Bears back since Matt Forte’s 205-yard game in 2011 and came against a top-ten run defense, giving legitimate evidence that his 5.3 season YPC is sustainable. The Giants, meanwhile, have allowed 4.9 YPC and the third-most RB receptions since Week 5, so Monangai’s three-catch floor keeps his PPR ceiling sky-high. Even if Swift (groin) suits up, Matt Eberflus has already stated the team will ride the “hot hand,” and Monangai’s superior efficiency (5.3 vs 4.6 YPC) and significantly lower mileage make him the likely leader in a 60-40 split. Project the Rutgers product for 16-18 carries and 3-4 targets—volume that has produced 16-plus fantasy points against far stingier fronts. Expect 95-110 total yards and a 50% touchdown probability, translating to mid-range RB2 numbers with legitimate weekly-winning upside if Swift sits or aggravates his injury. Bench him at your own peril; this is exactly the type of league-winning league that wins championships.