Analyze Justin Herbert's matchup for week 10
Riding a four-game TD streak and facing a Steelers defense that’s hemorrhaged 25.3 QB fantasy points per game, Herbert is a locked-in top-five play under the SoFi lights.
Pittsburgh’s 2025 "Steel Curtain" has been ripped for 2,054 passing yards and 13 TDs in seven games, ranking 31st in QB fantasy points allowed. While the Steelers have tightened a bit over the past month (28th in that span), their outside corners still lack speed and their zone coverages have left the intermediate middle open—prime real estate for Herbert’s 68% primetime completion rate.
Herbert is the NFL’s passing-TD leader (18) and has averaged 297 yards and 2.7 scores over his last three outings, posting a 97.3 passer rating and career-best 67.7% completion rate.
Herbert’s hot stretch isn’t a fluke; it’s the by-product of Jim Harbaugh’s balanced attack finally clicking. Play-action is buying him clean pockets, and with a healthy receiving corps he’s dissecting zones that previously gave him trouble. Pittsburgh’s pass rush (only 21 sacks) rarely forces quick throws, letting Herbert survey and attack a secondary allowing the second-most QB fantasy points. Expect 35–40 attempts, 285+ yards, and multiple scores as the Chargers push pace in a primetime playoff-race statement game. The Steelers’ recent uptick in coverage coincides with facing lesser QB talent; Herbert’s arm talent and red-zone efficiency (third-best RZ TD rate) expose that improvement as schedule noise rather than schematic magic. Fire him up as a locked-in QB1 with overall-weekly-winner upside.