Analyze Justice Hill's matchup for week 10
Hill has been demoted behind Keaton Mitchell and is looking at 2–3 touches at best against a middling Rams defense, making him a clear sit in every format.
Baltimore is a home favorite, so game script could lean run-heavy, but the pecking order is now Derrick Henry followed by the explosive Mitchell, leaving Hill as the distant RB3. The Rams’ 10th-ranked run defense is stout enough to limit efficiency on the rare occasions Hill sees the field, and his 40% snap share has been trending downward for a month.
After back-to-back weeks of being out-touched by Mitchell, Hill has totaled –7 yards on five carries over his last two games and lost a fumble, cementing his drop to third-string.
Justice Hill entered 2025 as the presumed change-of-pace complement to Derrick Henry, but his inefficiency (-1.4 YPC) and ball-security lapse opened the door for second-year back Keaton Mitchell, whose burst has earned him the primary backup role. Over the last three weeks Hill’s snap share has slipped from 48% to 31% to a season-low 22% in Week 9, while Mitchell has handled 5, 6 and 7 touches in that span. Offensive coordinator Todd Monken has since re-allocated most passing-down work to Mitchell, erasing the one niche that previously kept Hill on the fantasy radar. Against a Rams front seven that allows just 3.9 YPC and has given up only three rushing scores to opposing backs, any volume Hill does receive will be hard-pressed to produce meaningful yardage. With Baltimore favored by a touchdown, the likeliest script still funnels early-down work to Henry and change-of-pace opportunities to Mitchell, capping Hill at 2–3 low-leverage touches. In 12-team redraft leagues he is well outside the flex conversation, and even as a handcuff he would split early-down work with Mitchell if Henry were to miss time. The prudent move is to leave Hill on the waiver wire and use the roster spot for a higher-upside lottery ticket or a bye-week replacement who actually projects for double-digit snaps.