Analyze Josh Jacobs's matchup for week 10
Jacobs is white-hot (6 TDs in his last 5) and draws an Eagles front surrendering 4.2 YPC in a home game the Packers are favored to control; lock him in as a rock-solid RB1.
Green Bay projects for positive script as 2.5-point favorites on Monday night, and Philadelphia’s run defense sits in the middle of the pack—19.8 PPR points per game to RBs, 4.2 YPC allowed, seven rushing scores surrendered. Jacobs has already gashed this unit for 81 total yards and a TD in the Wild-Card round last January, and the Eagles still lack a true gap-plugger inside. With the Packers’ reshuffled O-line creating consistent push, Jacobs should see 18-22 carries plus his usual passing-down work, giving him one of the highest touch floors on the slate.
Since Week 5 Jacobs has rattled off 6 touchdowns while averaging 18 touches and 16.7 PPR points—good for RB4 numbers—despite a single dud against Pittsburgh’s elite front.
Jacobs’ mid-season renaissance coincides with Green Bay fully embracing a run-first identity in the red zone; he’s handled 81% of the team’s carries inside the 10 and 100% of the goal-line rushes over the last month. The offensive line’s health has stabilized—LT Rasheed Walker and RG Elgton Jenkins are both grading 70+ as run blockers per PFF—allowing Jacobs to average 3.4 yards after contact, 11th among backs with 100+ carries. Against an Eagles front that still plays a light nickel on early downs, those second-level lanes should be available, especially if Philly is forced to respect play-action against a banged-up secondary.
From a game-script standpoint, Monday night sets up perfectly. The Packers are favored, at home, in prime time, where Matt LaFleur is 9-3 straight-up and routinely leans on his bell-cow. Philadelphia’s offense has been boom-or-bust under center, so even if the score flips, Green Bay is unlikely to abandon the run; Jacobs has played 72% of snaps in one-score fourth quarters this year. Add in his sneaky receiving usage—23 grabs already eclipse his 2024 total—and you have a back with both 20-point ceiling and a 15-point floor.
Bottom line: all arrows point up. The opponent is exploitable on the ground, the Packers want to pound rock, and Jacobs is handling the type of workload we usually only see from the CMC–Barkley tier. Fire him up as a top-12 option and enjoy the Monday night spike week.