Analyze Jordan Addison's matchup for week 10
Start Jordan Addison in Week 10—the Jaguars have surrendered eight 17.5+ point games to WRs, and Addison’s red-zone chops plus single-coverage looks make him a high-upside WR3 with WR2 ceiling.
Jacksonville’s defense has been a fantasy buffet, ceding the most QB fantasy points, 0.56 points per pass attempt, and bottom-three marks in EPA, yards per play, and red-zone efficiency. Addison will run most of his routes against a secondary that’s allowed the second-most points per attempt and has zero healthy corners who can match his vertical speed. With Justin Jefferson commanding double-teams, Addison should see single coverage on 70% of snaps—exactly the scenario where he averaged 13.9 YPR and scored nine times already this year.
After a 70-911-10 rookie year, Addison’s target share has dipped below 13% in three straight games, but he’s still pacing for double-digit TDs and actually raised his per-catch average to 13.9 yards.
The Jaguars’ generosity to wideouts isn’t a one-week fluke—it’s a season-long pattern. They’ve allowed multiple touchdown passes in six of nine games and have given up at least 250 passing yards in seven straight. Addison’s 25% red-zone target rate inside the 20 is second only to Jefferson on the Vikings, and Jacksonville’s red-zone defense ranks dead-last in TD rate (78%). Even on a modest 4-5 look day, he’s a threat to turn one deep crosser or back-shoulder fade into six points. Sam Darnold’s 79% completion clip over his last two tilts also stabilizes the floor; short hitches and bubbles to Addison are essentially extended handoffs against a soft zone that’s allergic to tackling. Finally, game script projects favorably—Vikings are 7.5-point road favorites, but Jacksonville’s offense has kept games close enough (six losses by one score) to prevent a full-scale ground-and-pound fourth quarter. All arrows point to Addison smashing his 12.6 PPR projection, with 15-20 point upside if he sees six-plus targets.