Analyze Jonnu Smith's matchup for week 10
Jonnu Smith enters Monday night as a locked-in TE1: he’s on pace for a career-best 88-884-8 line, the Rams have bled production to athletic tight ends all year, and Miami’s scheme keeps creating red-zone mismatches for him. Fire him up with confidence.
The Dolphins travel to L.A. for a prime-time date with a Rams defense that ranks in the bottom third in yards per coverage snap allowed to tight ends. Smith’s 79 % catch rate and 510 YAC show he can exploit the space Los Angeles concedes, while Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle keep safety attention outside. The Rams’ linebackers have struggled with athletic TEs who win after the catch—exactly the skill set that has made Smith Tua Tagovailoa’s favorite red-zone weapon this season.
Smith has been ascending all year, averaging 7.9 PPR points per game and posting a season-best 6-101-2 line in Week 11; his 8 TDs tie the Dolphins’ franchise record for tight ends and he’s seen 25 % of the team’s red-zone looks over the last month.
Jonnu Smith’s 2024 renaissance under Mike McDaniel is no fluke—his 111 targets have produced an elite 79 % catch rate and 884 yards through the air, while his 510 YAC underscore how dangerous he is once the ball is in his hands. The Dolphins’ motion-heavy attack consistently creates rubs that free Smith up the seam and on shallow crossers, and his chemistry with Tagovailoa has turned him into a de-facto big-slot weapon inside the 20. Los Angeles, meanwhile, has allowed a 72 % catch rate and 6.2 yards per target to tight ends this season, numbers that balloon when faced with athletic move players who can win after the catch. With the Rams likely dedicating extra coverage to Hill and Waddle on the perimeter, Smith should see favorable linebacker or safety matchups all night. Expect 5–6 grabs, 65–75 yards, and a better-than-average shot at a touchdown—numbers that play as a mid-range TE1 floor with multi-score upside in a game that could turn into a shootout on Monday Night Football.