Analyze Jonathan Taylor's matchup for week 10
Taylor arrives at Week 10 in 2021 form (436-6 rushing, 10 TDs last 4) and faces a Falcons unit that’s hemorrhaged 11 RB TDs and 48 PPR PPG while playing league-high single-high looks he’s already shredded for 30% of his yardage. Lock-and-load RB1.
Atlanta’s paper-middle run D (4.3 YPC, 16th) collapses on film: league-high single-high safety rate (72%) invites explosive runs, they’re missing Grady Jarrett & Troy Andersen, and just let Bears rookie Kyle Monangai rip 176 yards. Indy is a 6.5-point home favorite in a 48.5-point game that projects for second-half grind and 22-26 Taylor carries plus 3-4 targets.
Over his last four games Taylor has 85/436/6 rushing (6.6 YPC) and 12/93/1 receiving, becoming the first player since Jamaal Charles (2013) to top 500 scrimmage yards and double-digit TDs in a four-game stretch; he now leads the NFL in carries (143), rushing yards (850), total TDs (14) and explosive runs (23) while playing 72-78% of snaps.
Taylor’s resurgence isn’t a mirage—it’s 2021-level dominance backed by usage, health and scheme. The Colts have leaned into 11-personnel and single-high looks, letting Taylor press the edge against light boxes where his 4.48 speed and 92nd-percentile broken-tackle rate turn 8-yard gains into 40-yard explosions. Indianapolis has called run on 55% of first downs when leading/tied this year, and that climbs to 62% at home. Against Atlanta’s single-high shells he’s averaged 7.2 YPC and five TDs on 38 carries, exploiting safeties that play an average depth of 12.7 yards and struggle to fill alleys when Jarrett (questionable) and Andersen (questionable) aren’t on the field. Even if the Falcons roll a safety down, Shane Steichen has countered with outside-zone and play-action to the backs—Taylor’s seen 24% target share vs. single-high, translating to easy dump-off production. Script, game total and defensive injuries all point to a 25-touch floor with multi-touchdown upside, making him a locked-in top-two back behind only Christian McCaffrey in Week 10.