Analyze Jj Mccarthy's matchup for week 10
Fresh off a historic two-TD, one-rush-TD return in Detroit, McCarthy faces a Ravens defense that has struggled with mobile QBs and will be on the road in a loud U.S. Bank Stadium—start him confidently as a high-upside QB2.
The Ravens enter Week 10 ranked middle-of-the-pack against fantasy QBs and just allowed 40+ to Josh Allen two weeks ago. Baltimore’s pass-rush (minus an injured Odafe Oweh) has been ordinary on the road, while Minnesota’s finally-healthy line (O’Neill, Darrisaw) surrendered zero sacks to Detroit. With Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison stretching every level of a secondary that has already given up 16 TD passes, McCarthy has the weapons and protection to exploit the matchup.
Since returning from a high-ankle sprain, McCarthy has thrown for 4 TDs and rushed for 2 more in three career games—joining Marino and Mahomes as the only first-round QBs since 1970 to win two divisional road starts that early.
The biggest driver of McCarthy’s spike-week potential is health across the offense. After Week 2’s demolition in Atlanta where he was pressured on 48% of drop-backs and subsequently injured, Minnesota’s line is back to full strength and just paved the way for 143 yards and three total scores against a top-ten Lions pass-rush. A clean pocket unlocks McCarthy’s anticipation throws to Jefferson on deep crossers and red-zone daggers to Hockenson—both areas where Baltimore has leaked production. On the ground, designed QB draws and improvised scrambles give a safe 20-30-yard rushing floor; the Ravens have allowed the sixth-most QB rushing yards this year and just watched Allen rip off 51. Coaching context also tilts Minnesota’s way—Kevin O’Connell has crafted a conservative-but-efficient script that limits turnovers (only one INT on 62 attempts) while still producing 2.3 TD passes per game since McCarthy took over. Finally, game environment matters: the Vikings are 5-1 at home under O���Connell when favored by <4, and Baltimore’s offense can keep the scoreboard moving, preventing a run-heavy game script that would cap McCarthy’s attempts. All signs point to 220-plus yards and multiple scores, with a realistic ceiling of 300/3 if the Ravens blitz and leave their corners in solo coverage.