Analyze Jerome Ford's matchup for week 10
Ford is the clear RB3 behind Judkins and Sampson, so even a middling Jets run defense can’t save his floor; keep him glued to your bench.
The Jets’ run defense sits 16th in yards per carry and 18th in RB fantasy points allowed, a neutral draw on paper. Unfortunately for Ford, Cleveland’s backfield now operates as a three-headed committee: rookie Quinshon Judkins commands early-down and goal-line work (65% opportunity share), while fourth-rounder Dylan Sampson has siphoned off the passing-down snaps. Even if Judkins’ AC-joint issue limits him to 12–15 touches, the Browns have telegraphed a split that leaves Ford scrambling for 6–8 low-leverage touches and no goal-line path.
Ford’s snap share has fallen four straight weeks, averaging 4.3 touches for 19 total yards since Week 5 after posting 1,132 scrimmage yards and nine TDs in 2023.
Jerome Ford’s 2025 campaign is a textbook example of how quickly a backfield can pivot from ambiguous to overcrowded. After taking a pay-cut to stay in Cleveland, Ford entered August as the presumed lead back, but the front office invested second- and fourth-round draft capital in Quinshon Judkins and Dylan Sampson. Judkins’ physical, tackle-breaking style has earned him the early-down role and, crucially, the goal-line work that once buoyed Ford’s touchdown equity. Sampson’s plus receiving chops have turned third downs into his personal playground, erasing the PPR floor that previously kept Ford fantasy-relevant in negative game script.
Week 10’s matchup against the Jets underscores how situation can override paper talent. New York’s front seven is middling—allowing 4.3 yards per carry and just six rushing scores—but the macro environment in Cleveland caps every rusher’s ceiling. The Browns’ offense ranks 28th in drives that reach the red zone, so touchdown opportunities are scarce enough that only the primary back benefits. With Judkins practicing in full by Friday and listed as probable, the coaching staff has no incentive to deviate from the status quo. Even if the game gets out of hand and turns pass-heavy, Sampson—not Ford—is the designated two-minute-drill back, dropping Ford’s projected snap share under 25%.
From a usage standpoint, Ford’s best-case script is a 6–8 touch outing hovering around 30 scrimmage yards, entirely touchdown-dependent for fantasy viability. Historical data shows backs seeing fewer than 10 opportunities average 5.2 PPR points, and Ford hasn’t scored since Week 3. Unless Judkins suffers an in-game setback, Ford’s weekly ceiling is capped in the single digits, a risk/reward profile that should only be considered in 14-team leagues or deeper during apocalyptic bye weeks. Bench him and pivot to any backfield with even a 40% touch share.