Analyze Jaylen Warren's matchup for week 10
Warren’s 18-touch floor and pass-game juice collide with a Chargers defense that’s coughed up 100+ total yards to RBs in five of its last six games, making him a high-floor, high-ceiling start.
Los Angeles enters Week 10 ranked 20th in PPR points allowed to backs and has already given up 13 total TDs to the position. Their linebackers over-pursue outside-zone runs, the exact scheme Jaylen Warren has thrived on during his 19.9 PPR average over the last four weeks. With Pittsburgh a 2.5-point favorite, game-script should keep the ball in Warren’s hands for 17-20 touches yet again.
Volume is finally king: 18.5 touches and 19.9 PPR per game since Week 6 with 65%+ snap share and zero goal-line vultures in sight.
Warren’s last four healthy games represent the best stretch of his young career. He returned from a knee issue in Week 6 to immediately reclaim lead duties, ripped off a career-high 161 scrimmage yards against Cincinnati, and has now handled 68% of RB snaps even when rookie Kaleb Johnson dressed. The Steelers scrapped the 50/50 committee that capped Warren in 2023-24, instead feeding him 16 carries inside the 10-yard line while Gainwell and Johnson have combined for one. That usage has translated to a top-12 PPR output at the position since Week 6, and the underlying metrics say it’s sustainable.
The matchup paper tiger is the Chargers’ front seven. L.A. is allowing 21.2 PPR per game to RBs (20th), 4.6 YPC (19th), and a league-high 13 total touchdowns to the position. They’ve surrendered 100-plus total yards to an individual back in five of their last six outings, including 195 to Derrick Henry and 118 to Bijan Robinson. Linebacker over-pursuit against outside-zone looks leaves cut-back lanes that Warren has exploited all year. Add in a pass-defense that’s given up the sixth-most RB receptions (30 on 38 targets), and Warren’s seven-game streak with multiple catches looks safe.
Combine the guaranteed volume, positive game-script as 2.5-point favorites, and a defense hemorrhaging both rushing and receiving production to backs, and Warren profiles as one of the safest floor plays of Week 10. Even last week’s ugly 1.9 YPC still returned 18.9 PPR thanks to two short touchdowns and pass-game involvement. Expect another 15-20 touch, 80-100 scrimmage-yard day with upside for a third touchdown in four weeks.