Analyze Jaylen Waddle's matchup for week 10
Waddle is a volume-dependent WR3/FLEX who’s healthy, motivated and likely the de-facto alpha after Tyreek Hill’s departure; start him in PPR if you need 12-16-point upside, bench him if your alternatives have safer floors.
Week 10 brings a middle-of-the-road pass defense that Waddle torched for 8-137-1 in their last meeting, and with Hill gone he projects for a 23-25% target share out of the slot and on deep overs. Buffalo has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to outside WRs, and Miami’s uptempo pace keeps Waddle on the field for 90%+ of snaps. The risk is Tua’s occasional volatility and possible double-teams, but the matchup is neutral-to-positive and the game total sits at 48.
After a career-worst 2024 (49.6 yds/g, 2 TD), Waddle enters Week 10 fully healthy, in a contract year, and averaging 7.3 targets over the last three games with Hill no longer on the roster.
Jaylen Waddle’s 2024 tape was ugly—he battled knee swelling, saw only 18% of the targets while Hill dominated, and posted a meager 1.76 yards per route. The silver lining is that those numbers cratered largely because of scheme and health, not talent. Fast-forward to 2025: Hill was traded, Waddle’s knee issues are behind him, and the Dolphins have moved him around formations to manufacture touches (screens, shallow crossers, slot fades). Through nine weeks he’s re-established the 11.5-yard aDOT that made him a WR1 in 2021-22, and his 2.39 yards per route run ranks 11th among 69 qualifiers. Buffalo enters allowing 7.9 YPA and has given up six 100-yard receivers this year; their primary outside corners, Christian Benford and Kaiir Elam, grade 54th and 61st in PFF coverage scores when lined up vs. the slot, where Waddle runs 49% of his routes. Expect 8-10 targets, 70-90 yards and a 40% chance of a score—high-end WR3 numbers with WR2 ceiling if one of those targets turns into a 50-yard house call. The floor is 4-50-0 if Miami falls behind and abandons the pass, but the likelihood of negative game script actually helps Waddle’s target floor. In PPR leagues that reward volume, he’s a locked-in FLEX; in standard you’re betting on the splash play, which is a bet the peripherals say is justified.