Analyze Jaxon Smith Njigba's matchup for week 10
Jaxon Smith-Njigba enters Week 10 as the NFL receiving-yards leader (948) and has topped 100 yards in four straight games; he draws a Cardinals defense that has leaked production to slot receivers all year, making him an automatic, ceiling-level fantasy start.
Smith-Njigba will run about 70% of his routes from the slot against a Cardinals unit that ranks bottom-five in yards per target (9.2) and passer rating (108.7) allowed to inside receivers. Arizona plays man coverage at the eighth-highest rate, and JSN’s elite separation quickness (2.3-yard average cushion) has produced the league’s third-best yards-per-route figure versus man (3.14). With Cooper Kupp still out, the third-year WR is commanding a 32% target share and at least 11 looks in five straight games; the Cardinals have allowed 70+ receiving yards to five different slot/primary WRs this season. Add in Seattle’s top-five pace of play and a home dome environment that boosts passing efficiency 6% versus the league-average, and all signs point to another 100-yard floor day.
Four consecutive 100-yard outings, 75+ yards in every 2025 contest, and a league-leading 948 yards—his usage and efficiency are still climbing.
The macro trend is historic: Smith-Njigba is the fifth player in the Super Bowl era to open a season with eight straight 75-yard games and the first to do it while also leading the league in receiving yards. Microscopically, his target quality is improving—over the last three weeks Sam Darnold has thrown JSN the ball on 34% of attempts while under pressure, resulting in a 131.4 passer rating and three touchdowns. That matters against a blitz-heavy Cardinals scheme that sends five or more rushers on 38% of drop-backs; when blitzed this year JSN averages 3.6 yards per route, second only to Tyreek Hill.
The matchup data is equally rosy. Arizona’s primary slot corner, Starling Thomas, has allowed 1.95 yards per cover snap (fourth-worst among 68 qualified slot defenders) and given up six completions of 25+ yards in man coverage. When the Cardinals rotate to zone, JSN’s spatial awareness shows up: he leads the NFL with 378 yards after the catch versus zone looks, turning short crossers into chunk gains. Expect offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak to deploy bunch sets and motion to isolate Thomas in space, a wrinkle that produced 14 targets for Smith-Njigba in Week 9.
Finally, game script projects as pass-friendly even with Seattle favored by a touchdown. Arizona’s offense has scored on 48% of second-half drives the past month, keeping opponents’ starters on the field. In neutral scripts this year JSN averages 11.8 targets and 108 yards; if the Cardinals keep it close those numbers could spike toward the 13-look, 130-yard range he posted in Weeks 7-9. The only real risk is positive game script limiting fourth-quarter volume, yet even in blowouts Seattle has kept its starters on the field to keep feeding their star. Bank on another 100-yard, high-end WR1 week and do not even consider a seat on your bench for the NFL’s most consistent fantasy performer.