Analyze Jared Goff's matchup for week 10
Goff is white-hot (15 TD, 3 INT, perfect 158.3 rating last week) and draws a Commanders defense that has been fantasy QB gold; fire him up as a locked-in top-five play with overall-QB1 upside.
Washington has hemorrhaged points to opposing quarterbacks all year, routinely letting passers spike well above their seasonal averages. At Ford Field, where Goff completes 75 %+ of his throws and the Lions average 30.7 points per game, the matchup upgrades from great to elite. Expect 250-plus yards and multiple scores as the Lions’ fifth-ranked attack keeps rolling.
Over his last five games Goff has posted passer ratings of 153.0, 140.0, 129.9, 109.3 and a perfect 158.3, averaging 8.0 YPA and tossing 15 TD against 3 INT while completing nearly 75 % of his passes.
Jared Goff enters Week 10 in the zone that fantasy championships are built on, orchestrating Detroit’s third-ranked scoring offense with surgical precision. His 74.9 % completion rate and 8.0 yards per attempt reflect an attack that stresses defenses horizontally with Amon-Ra St. Brown and vertically with Jameson Williams, creating a floor of 20 fantasy points even before considering matchup. The offensive line, anchored by Penei Sewell and Frank Ragnow, has kept Goff clean enough to attempt 34 throws per game without sacrificing efficiency, and the Lions’ 63 % red-zone touchdown rate means those attempts consistently turn into six points.
Washington’s defense has been historically friendly to quarterbacks, surrendering the most fantasy points per dropback and ceding a 108.3 opponent passer rating—numbers that balloon when the game script forces the pass rush to chase. Coordinator Jack Del Rio’s unit lacks both a premier edge rusher and healthy corner depth after trading away Montez Sweat and seeing Emmanuel Forbes struggle in man coverage. That deficiency plays directly into Goff’s quick-strike rhythm passing; when he identifies Cover-3, he’s averaging 11.2 yards per attempt on deep outs and posts, routes the Commanders have allowed to be completed 78 % of the time. Add in a 28th-ranked pressure rate and Goff’s league-best 82 % completion percentage versus four-man rushes, and the ingredients are there for a 300-yard, three-touchdown eruption.
Finally, game environment matters. The Lions are 8.5-point favorites at home, implying a 28-point implied team total—an almost automatic green light for quarterback production. When Goff plays with a lead, Detroit leans on play-action, where his 131.2 passer rating ranks second only to Purdy. Expect Ben Johnson to script early motion and bunch sets that isolate Jahmyr Gibbs on linebackers, forcing Washington to declare single-high looks that Goff has carved for 12.9 yards per attempt this season. Even a conservative projection lands him at 275 yards and 2.5 touchdowns, but the ceiling is 350 and four scores if this turns into the shoot-out the totals market hints at. In seasonal leagues, DFS, or dynasty, there is no scenario that justifies a seat on the bench—lock him in as the top quarterback play of Week 10.