Analyze Jake Ferguson's matchup for week 10
Ferguson sits out Week 10 on Dallas’s bye, but his TE1 ceiling (six TDs in eight games, elite red-zone usage) makes him an easy hold; expect a top-10 rebound vs. favorable post-bye matchups.
The Cowboys are off in Week 10, so there’s no defensive opponent to exploit or avoid. Ferguson’s season arc—TE1 through seven weeks followed by a shocking zero-catch Denver game—shows both his league-winning ceiling and tight-end volatility. With Dallas returning to face the Raiders, Eagles and Chiefs (all plus spots for TE scoring) over the next three weeks, the bye simply pauses a breakout campaign rather than derailing it.
Explosive first seven weeks (six TDs, 12- and 14-target games) before a 1-target, 0-catch dud vs. Denver; still pacing as fantasy’s per-game TE1 thanks to elite red-zone usage.
Ferguson’s 2025 splits reveal a “garbage-time” specialist who feasts when defenses key on Lamb and the outside weapons, averaging only 6.5 YPC but commanding eight end-zone looks already. The Week 8 blank was scheme-driven—Denver bracketed him and dared Dallas to run—yet his prior 13-82 line vs. Chicago underscores the 25-year-old’s 30-point ceiling when game script cooperates. The timing of the bye is ideal: it buys the staff two weeks to redesign middle-field concepts that free Ferguson vs. zone, and it lets him rest the minor ankle issue that limited practice time before the Denver loss. Coming out of the break he draws a Raiders defense allowing the fourth-most TE receptions, followed by Philly’s cover-1 looks that created early-season splash games for Knox and Kittle. Historical data shows tight ends returning from byes average 18% more targets in Week 11; given Prescott’s 126.3 passer rating on throws to Ferguson this year, another multi-touchdown eruption is more likely than another disappearing act. Managers should lock him into lineups immediately after the bye and treat him as a set-and-forget TE1 the rest of the way.