Analyze J K Dobbins's matchup for week 10
Start J.K. Dobbins with confidence as a high-floor RB2 who owns 52 % of snaps, gets goal-line work, faces the 10th-easiest RB defense, and carries a league-leading-in-this-matchup 47 % TD probability.
Denver is a 9.5-point home favorite (81 % win probability) and projects for 24 points, setting up positive game script for Dobbins against a Raiders front that has bled production to backs all year. The last time he saw Las Vegas he totaled 66 scrimmage yards and 3 catches, and the Raiders still haven’t fixed their gap discipline or tackling issues.
Fully healthy after the 2023 Achilles tear, Dobbins has posted 59.7 rush yards and 2.3 catches a game over the last three while keeping a 5.3 YPC season mark and the league’s No. 8 rushing grade per PFF.
The macro environment is ideal: Sean Payton wants to lean on the ground when ahead, and the Broncos’ win probability keeps rising as the Raiders’ offensive line crumbles. Dobbins’ 47.3 % anytime-TD probability is the highest on the entire Denver roster, reflecting both red-zone usage (eight carries inside the 10, twice as many as any teammate) and a matchup that has already surrendered 11 rushing scores to backs. Snap share (52 %) is down slightly from early-season peaks, but the rookie surge from R.J. Harvey looks like a one-week outlier versus the league-worst Cowboys front; Dobbins still out-snaps Harvey two-to-one and has 634 rushing yards to Harvey’s 200. Expect 15–17 touches, including the first, second, and third crack at the goal line if Denver reaches the 5-yard line.
From a schematic standpoint, Las Vegas runs a lot of single-high and quarters coverages to protect a shaky secondary, which leaves light boxes. When Dobbins sees six-or-fewer defenders (58 % of his carries), he’s averaging 6.1 YPC and a 22 % broken-tackle rate. The Raiders’ interior—ranked 29th in ESPN’s run-stop win rate—also lost run-stuffing NT John Jenkins for the year, so daylight should be available between the tackles. Denver’s retooled offensive line, particularly LG Ben Powers and C Luke Fortner, has generated the NFL’s sixth-highest adjusted line yards on interior runs, aligning perfectly with Dobbins’ north-south style.
Finally, game-flow equity matters: the Broncos’ defense leads the league in pressure rate since Week 6, and Aidan O’Connell has the NFL’s fastest time-to-throw under pressure. Short fields and clock-killing drives are in play, giving Dobbins both a 15-point PPR floor and legitimate 25-point ceiling if he finds the end zone twice. Fire him up as a top-15 back in all formats.