Analyze Hunter Henry's matchup for week 10
Hunter Henry has averaged 5.8-58-0.3 on 13.1 PPG over the last month with Drake Maye and projects for another 6-65-0.5 day as the Pats throw 35-plus times as big underdogs; start him with confidence.
Chicago grades out eighth in TE yards allowed since Week 5 and ninth in fantasy points per game to the position, but the Bears’ zone-heavy scheme actually plays into Henry’s hands—he’s a master at sitting in soft spots. More importantly, New England is a 9.5-point road dog, so expect a pass-heavy, catch-up script that funnels targets to Maye’s most trusted weapon.
Henry has been the TE3 over the last four weeks, vaulting from early-season afterthought to every-week starter thanks to 23-139-1 on 29 targets with Drake Maye under center.
Volume and chemistry trump a middling paper matchup here. Henry’s 29 targets in Maye’s four complete games trail only Mark Andrews at the position, and that usage has come with zero target competition—no other Patriot has more than 16 receptions in that span. The Patriots’ 59% pass rate when trailing ranks fifth in the league, and with a 9.5-point spread, that trajectory is baked in. Chicago’s Cover-3 and Cover-6 looks leave the middle of the field vulnerable; tight ends have averaged 8.1 yards per target versus the Bears when they play zone, compared with 6.4 vs man. Henry’s 2.27 yards per route run versus zone this year (per PFF) is a top-five mark, so the schematic fit is ideal. Add in red-zone usage—he paces the team with eight inside-the-20 looks—and you have a floor of six catches for 50 yards with legitimate touchdown upside. Even if Chicago limits the splash play, the sheer target floor keeps him safely inside the top-10 tight ends for Week 10.