Analyze Geno Smith's matchup for week 10
Despite a 284-yard, 4-TD breakout in Week 9, Smith is a must-sit against Denver’s league-best QB defense that already has 40 sacks and forces constant pressure.
Geno Smith’s encouraging rebound against Jacksonville’s soft secondary won’t travel to Denver. The Broncos lead the NFL in sack rate, have 40 sacks through nine weeks, and rank No. 1 in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Behind a Raiders line that’s 25th in sack rate allowed, Smith—already sacked multiple times in six of eight starts—projects to spend the afternoon under duress. Without home-field and with an implied team total of just 16 points, the environment sets up for turnovers and a floor-game.
After a shaky start to his Raiders tenure, Smith posted season-bests of 284 yards and 4 TDs in Week 9, largely on the back of TE Brock Bowers’ 12-114-3 line.
Week 9’s eruption was more about Jacksonville’s coverage lapses than any fundamental leap by Smith; 75% of his scores and the bulk of his yardage came via Bowers beating linebackers and safeties. Underneath the surface, the same issues persist—he’s still sporting an 11-to-11 TD-INT ratio and has taken 23 sacks, many the result of holding the ball too long. Denver’s defense is tailor-made to exploit those flaws: they generate pressure on 42% of drop-backs without blitzing, disguise coverages post-snap, and turn hurried throws into turnovers. Even minus Patrick Surtain II, the Broncos limited C.J. Stroud to 5.0 YPA and zero TDs last week. With a 10-point spread and an over/under south of 40, game script figures to be negative early, forcing Smith into obvious passing downs where edge rushers Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper can pin their ears back. Expect inflated sack and interception probability, minimal red-zone volume, and a fantasy ceiling that sits below 12 points in most scoring formats.