Analyze Emeka Egbuka's matchup for week 10
Two weeks of rest have Egbuka back to full health and still commanding elite target volume; the Patriots’ slot-friendly defense gives him a realistic path to 65-75 yards and a score, making him a high-upside FLEX.
New England’s pass defense ranks middle-of-the-pack vs. WRs but has been picked apart by slot receivers, the exact area where Egbuka runs over 70 % of his routes. With Chris Godwin limited, Baker Mayfield will keep feeding his rookie—61 targets in eight games and no clear challenger for inside work. The Patriots’ stingy outside corners matter less for Egbuka, and Tampa’s bye should have the hamstring that tanked his efficiency (36 % catch rate the last three weeks) finally back to 100 %.
Exploded for five TDs and 18 fantasy PPG in the first five weeks, then hurt his hamstring and crashed to 6.4 PPG with zero scores and a 36 % catch rate over the last three games.
Egbuka’s first month had fantasy managers comparing him to the rookie-year versions of Justin Jefferson and A.J. Brown, but the hamstring turned a 70 % catch-rate machine into a drop-prone ghost. The underlying usage never disappeared—he still led the team in targets per game and air-yard share even while limping—so the bye week is the reset button Tampa needed. Hamstring injuries sap burst off the line and limit yards-after-catch, explaining both the falling catch rate and the disappearance of chunk plays; if the medical staff is correct that strength and flexibility are restored, we should see a return to the crisp route-running that created so much early-season separation. New England’s slot coverage has been a revolving door: they’ve allowed the 6th-most fantasy points to inside receivers and just gave up 8-112-1 to a banged-up Jakobi Meyers two weeks ago. Expect defensive coordinator Steve Belichick to shade safety help inside, but without a true nickel cornerback they trust, Egbuka will face linebackers and backup DBs in man coverage. Offensive coordinator Liam Coen also hinted at more pre-snap motion to get him free releases, something they shelved while he was hurt. The final piece is game-script independence: even if Rachaad White grinds clock, the Patriots’ offense is good enough to keep it close, preventing Tampa from abandoning the pass. That combination of health, volume, and matchup gives Egbuka a 25 % chance to top 20 PPR points—exactly the kind of ceiling you chase at FLEX.