Analyze Dj Moore's matchup for week 10
Despite a three-game skid with only 80 yards and no scores, Moore draws a Patriots defense that bleeds WR points, making him a low-end FLEX who could finally reward patient managers.
New England’s secondary has been fantasy-friendly all year, ranking 21st in WR points allowed (20.5 per game) and generating the league’s third-fewest sacks (1.78 per contest). The Patriots have been especially vulnerable outside, where DJ Moore runs over 75 % of his routes, and their corner group has allowed 68 % of WR production to come on perimeter targets. With Chicago likely playing from ahead, Moore should see neutral-to-positive game script and a clean pocket for Caleb Williams, creating the best external environment he’s had since Week 5.
Volume and efficiency have cratered: 15.8 % target share the last three weeks after 21.9 % the first five, producing a combined 80 scoreless yards and repeated miscommunications with rookie QB Caleb Williams.
The underlying metrics are uglier than the box score. Moore’s 1.78 yards per route run over the last month ranks 68th among qualified WRs, and his 14 % targets-per-route-run rate reflects an offense that has shifted toward Rome Odunzé and Cole Kmet in the intermediate areas where Moore used to dominate. Public comments from both Moore and Williams acknowledge "timing isn’t where we want it," particularly on back-shoulder and deep-over concepts that were supposed to be the backbone of the connection. Even when schemed open, Williams has missed Moore on 29 % of catchable-ball opportunities since Week 6, per PFF, a rate nearly double the NFL average. That chemistry issue caps the touchdown ceiling that once made Moore a weekly WR2.
Still, the macro environment matters. New England plays man coverage at the sixth-highest rate (38 %), and Moore’s 2.43 yards per route run vs man since 2022 ranks top-20. Outside corners Marco Wilson and Christian Gonzalez have allowed a collective 121.6 passer rating when targeted, and slot reps will largely fall on hybrid safeties unable to match Moore’s release package. With the Patriots offense bottom-three in scoring, Chicago should control tempo, keeping pass volume modest but quality of looks high. Expect Shane Waldron to move Moore around the formation, including bunch sets that create free releases vs New England’s press looks, a wrinkle that produced a 37-yard catch-and-run for Moore in Week 5 and has been under-utilized during the slump.
Bottom line: the floor remains shaky because the quarterback-receiver rapport is broken, but the matchup pushes the ceiling back into WR3 territory for the first time in a month. If you need upside in a FLEX spot or are dealing with bye-pocalypse, Moore is startable. Just understand the risk profile: 4-5 catches and 60 yards are probable, but anything beyond that still requires Williams to execute throws he has consistently missed.