Analyze Devonta Smith's matchup for week 10
Smith is a clear sit against a Packers defense that ranks top-five in fewest WR touchdowns allowed, has dominated him historically, and is forcing targets to TEs instead of outside receivers.
Green Bay’s secondary has been among 2025’s stingiest, funneling production away from perimeter wideouts while allowing the 13th-most yards to tight ends. Keisean Nixon and company rank No. 1 in coverage grades and have surrendered only five WR scores all year, setting up a nightmarish on-paper matchup for the Eagles’ second option.
Smith has cratered over the last month, averaging 3.3 catches and 38 yards in his past three games with a 2-target clunker at Tampa and zero touchdowns since Week 3.
The tape and numbers paint a bleak picture. Over the last four weeks Smith’s target share has oscillated from 10 to 2, and he’s been held under 50 yards in three of those contests as A.J. Brown soaks up red-zone looks. Green Bay’s scheme specifically concedes short-area work to backs and tight ends—15 of the 18 passing touchdowns they’ve allowed have come from those positions—while Nixon’s 17.6 coverage grade per PFF has shut down alpha X and Z receivers all season. Add in Philadelphia’s declining early-down pass rate and Smith’s 0-TD history in two prior meetings with the Packers, and you have a low-floor, low-ceiling WR4 in Week 10. Bench him for any competent streamer with a neutral matchup.