Analyze Derrick Henry's matchup for week 10
Henry’s 5.9 YPC and 242-yard start to 2025 is offset by back-to-back duds and three fumbles; Minnesota’s middling run defense (4.3 YPC allowed) gives him a neutral draw, making him a boom-or-bust FLEX rather than a locked-in RB1 this week.
The Vikings have surrendered 913 rushing yards at 4.3 YPC and five TDs—ranking 22nd in YPG—while already allowing three 20-plus-yard runs. Minnesota’s interior (Allen/Hargrave) is stout, but linebackers Eric Wilson and Ivan Pace Jr. can be caught out of position, creating creases for Henry’s power style. Baltimore’s line is healthy again and may ride the ground game to protect a limited passing attack, yet Henry’s recent fumbles (three in three games) could cap his touch ceiling if the game script tightens.
Exploded for 169 yards and two scores in the opener, but followed with 23 and 50-yard clunkers and has lost two fumbles in his last two outings.
Henry’s early-season efficiency (5.9 YPC) still flashes elite burst—see the 49-yard long run versus Buffalo—but volume and ball-security concerns have dragged him into RB2/FLEX territory. Baltimore wants to lean on its physical identity, and Minnesota’s 12th-fewest fantasy points allowed to backs is more “beatable” than daunting; the Vikings have already conceded three chunk runs and struggle when mobile QBs force linebackers to hesitate. Expect 16-20 carries and goal-line looks, but another fumble could send him to the bench in favor of Edwards or Hill in negative game scripts. Treat him as a volatile upside play rather than a lineup cornerstone this week.