Analyze Deebo Samuel's matchup for week 10
A fully healthy Deebo Samuel draws a dream Week 10 spot versus a Lions defense bleeding 24.7 fantasy points per game to WRs, projects for 8-12 targets with Terry McLaurin out, and should be locked into starting lineups as a high-floor WR2 with WR1 upside.
Detroit has allowed 11 WR touchdowns in seven games and ranks in the bottom half of the league in fantasy points surrendered to the position, frequently deploying single-high looks that invite yards-after-catch production—an ideal setup for Samuel’s tackle-breaking skill set. With Jayden Daniels sidelined, Marcus Mariota steps in, but the bigger ripple is Terry McLaurin’s likely absence, funneling target volume through Samuel, who already paced the Commanders with 10 looks in Week 1.
After an injury-marred 2024 (51-670-3), Samuel’s first game in Washington was quietly explosive: 7-77 receiving plus a 19-yard rushing score, 10 targets, no practice limitations, and OC Kliff Kingsbury vowing to keep him moving all over formation.
Samuel’s renaissance starts with health—head coach Dan Quinn confirmed zero practice restrictions and a return of his trademark burst. That explosiveness pairs perfectly with Detroit’s defensive philosophy; the Lions play man coverage at a top-10 rate and allow the eighth-most YAC per reception, creating a runway for Samuel to turn short throws into chunk gains. Offensively, Washington is shorthanded enough to force-feed him: McLaurin’s quad injury removes the only other proven perimeter threat, and with Curtis Samuel still ramping up, expect stacks of rub routes, sweeps, and quick bubbles designed to get Deebo the ball in space. Mariota’s presence is actually a net plus for Samuel’s target security—the veteran has historically leaned on intermediate option routes and check-downs that maximize YAC monsters (see 2018 Corey Davis, 2022 Kyle Pitts). Add in a neutral weather forecast (52°F, 3 mph wind) and a 4:25 PM home crowd that should keep Washington in pass-heavy game script, and Samuel owns one of Week 10’s highest probability paths to 20-point upside. Fire him up as an easy top-20 WR play.