Analyze De Von Achane's matchup for week 10
Achane’s elite speed keeps his ceiling sky-high, but a stingy Bills run defense and Miami’s 29th-ranked offense make him a boom-or-bust FLEX rather than a locked-in RB2 this week.
Buffalo has bottled up speed backs all year and held Achane to 62 rushing yards in Week 3; the Dolphins’ league-worst 17 first downs per game limits overall scoring chances, yet Achane’s 4.9 receptions per game over his last ten keeps his PPR floor alive.
Explosive but maddeningly inconsistent—128 yards and 2 TDs vs. the Chargers were followed by back-to-back sub-70-yard rushing games and a 3.7 YPC clunker against Atlanta.
De’Von Achane’s 2025 season has become a weekly coin-flip between game-breaking heroics and pedestrian stat lines. After ripping off 128 yards and two scores against Los Angeles, he’s averaged just 3.7 YPC in the two subsequent weeks, exposing how heavily his value hinges on one or two long bursts. That volatility is amplified in Week 10 by a Buffalo defense that ranks top-five in rushing success rate allowed and has yet to surrender a 20-point PPR game to any running back this year. In the first meeting, Achane’s 5.2 YPC looked solid on paper, but 29 of his 62 rushing yards came on a single carry, meaning the other 11 touches netted only 33 yards—exactly the kind of boom-or-bust profile that can sink fantasy lineups when the big play never materializes.
The broader context is just as concerning. Miami’s offense is stuck in neutral, generating a league-low 17 first downs per game, which keeps the entire unit off schedule and caps Achane’s red-zone opportunities. Buffalo’s front seven has been especially effective against outside zone looks—the Dolphins’ preferred scheme—limiting explosive runs of 15-plus yards to just three in their last six games. Even if Achane breaks containment, safeties Jordan Poyer and Taylor Rapp have combined for only three missed tackles on rushing attempts since Week 5, meaning second-level yardage won’t come easily. Add in a home-field environment where Miami has actually scored fewer offensive touchdowns per game than on the road, and the macro indicators point toward a ceiling game that is far more unlikely than his 4.32 speed suggests.
Yet benching Achane outright is difficult because his receiving usage provides a rare floor for a big-play back. He’s third among all RBs with 235 receiving yards and has seen at least four targets in eight straight games, insulating him from negative game script. If the Dolphins fall behind early—Vegas opened Buffalo as a 6.5-point favorite—Achane could see 6–8 check-downs, which historically convert to 4–6 receptions and 25–40 receiving yards. That baseline production, plus 12–15 carries, projects to a 12–16 PPR-point range that outscores most waiver-wire FLEX options. Unless your roster boasts two clear top-24 backs with softer matchups, keep Achane in the FLEX and hope the lightning strike outweighs the storm clouds—just don’t expect the consistent RB6 production his PFN ranking implies.