Analyze David Montgomery's matchup for week 10
Montgomery’s trending downward (40 yards vs MIN) and is stuck in a timeshare, so even a middling Washington run defense can’t rescue his touchdown-dependent FLEX value.
Washington slots in as a neutral 3-star draw, ranking 18th by surrendering 677 rushing yards, 4 TDs and 20.0 PPR points per game to RBs, but the Lions’ pass-heavy scheme and Jahmyr Gibbs’ growing role cap Montgomery’s touch ceiling.
Since his 151-yard, 2-TD explosion in Week 3 he hasn’t topped 70 rushing yards, averaging 12–15 touches and becoming increasingly touchdown-reliant.
The underlying usage data is alarming: Montgomery has handled 15 or fewer touches in five of eight games while Gibbs commands the explosive and passing-down work, leaving Montgomery grinding for goal-line looks that simply haven’t materialized with Detroit throwing at one of the league’s highest rates inside the 20. His 65-yard showing in Week 5 stands as the post-Week 3 high-water mark, and a lost fumble against Minnesota further eroded coaching trust. Even though Washington bleeds the 12th-most RB receptions and Detroit could exploit their linebackers in space, Montgomery’s 5% target share makes that edge irrelevant for him. The Commanders’ middling 4.2-yard rushing average allowed isn’t enough to overcome his volume-dependent floor, and the game script projects pass-heavy if Washington keeps it close through the air. Expect 12–13 touches, 45–55 scrimmage yards, and a coin-flip TD probability—numbers that play only in 14-team leagues or deep FLEX desperation spots.