Analyze Darren Waller's matchup for week 10
Waller remains on IR with a pectoral strain and can’t return until Week 13; with Miami’s passing game in shambles and fantasy playoffs around the corner, he should be dropped in all redraft formats.
The Dolphins travel to Los Angeles in Week 10, but Darren Waller won’t be on the plane. Placed on injured reserve after a Week 7 pectoral injury, Waller is required to miss four games and, with Miami’s Week 9 bye already burned, his earliest activation is Week 13 versus New Orleans. The matchup itself is irrelevant—Waller cannot play, and even if he could, the Dolphins’ 26th-ranked pass attack and league-worst 10-interception quarterback play would severely cap his ceiling.
Through four games with Miami he was efficient (10-117-4 on 12 targets), but the sample is tiny and now six weeks of missed time plus a 2-6 team record render that spike unreachable for the rest of 2024.
From a fantasy perspective, Waller’s situation is a perfect storm of negatives. First, the calendar: most redraft leagues begin playoffs in Week 15, meaning any owner who stashes him is burning a bench spot for at least three more inactive weeks just to risk starting a rusty tight end in the first round. Second, the team context: without Tyreek Hill the Dolphins have become one-dimensional, allowing defenses to sit on intermediate routes and squeeze Tua Tagovailoa into mistakes—hardly an environment for a 32-year-old tight end coming off a upper-body injury to thrive. Third, the depth chart: Julian Hill is also banged-up, so when Waller does return he could face double-teams and chip-help with only Jaylen Waddle left as a proven down-field threat. Fourth, the historical comps: players who suffer pectoral strains often lose contested-catch strength for the balance of the season; even if Waller’s snap count ramps up, red-zone usage is likely to be rationed to avoid re-injury on a team that’s already 2-6 and thinking about 2025. Finally, the replacement pool: the wire is thin, but streaming options like Juwan Johnson, Colston Loveland or Dalton Schultz give you immediate starts during the most important stretch of the fantasy regular season. Holding Waller is essentially paying an opportunity-cost tax every week while your rivals add handcuff running backs or emerging wideouts who can actually help you win a championship.