Analyze Daniel Jones's matchup for week 10
Jones draws a home date with a shaky Falcons secondary, but his 2025 résumé is a roller-coaster driven almost entirely by rushing scores; without one he’s averaged 6-7 fantasy points and his passing TD rate is under one per game, making him a volatile, low-floor QB2.
Atlanta has leaked 18.9 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (sixth-most) and just allowed three total TDs to the position in back-to-back weeks, so the paper matchup is inviting. The Falcons’ pass rush ranks 18th in pressure rate, giving Jones enough time to push the ball to Michael Pittman Jr. and space to scramble, but their linebacker corps has tightened since Week 7 and Jones has topped 190 passing yards only once in his last four starts.
Over the last month Jones alternates usable weeks with duds: 24.4 points at Washington when he rushed for 54 yards and a score, 7.7 the next week when he didn’t; his passing TDs in that span total two and he’s been held under 200 yards in three of four games.
Jones’ production is almost perfectly correlated to his legs—when he finds the end zone on the ground he’s a back-end QB1; when he doesn’t he’s a sub-8-point liability. Indianapolis’ offense is built around a run-heavy script and quick perimeter throws, capping his attempts (he’s yet to hit 30 passes in a game this year) and therefore his yardage ceiling. Against Atlanta’s Cover-3 looks, the Colts will likely lean on play-action crossers for Pittman and underneath work to the backs, situations that don’t create many vertical scores for Jones. The Falcons have allowed the eighth-most rushing yards to QBs (28.4 per game), so there is a path to 40-plus rushing yards and a 20-point spike week, but that requires a goal-line plunge—something he’s converted only twice in nine games. With the Colts favored by four, game script could keep the ball on the ground late, further limiting his drop-backs. Unless your league is 2QB/Superflex or you’re chasing a miracle, the safer play is a streamer like Darnold or McCarthy, who offer comparable upside without the all-or-nothing floor.