Analyze Dalton Kincaid's matchup for week 10
Kincaid is a locked-in starter in Week 10 after a season-high 10 targets last week and a dream draw against a Colts defense that allows the 3rd-most TE fantasy points while playing zone at the league’s 2nd-highest rate.
Indianapolis has been a get-right spot for tight ends all year, ranking bottom-six in yards and fantasy points allowed to the position while running zone looks over 70% of the time—coverage that plays directly into Kincaid’s nuance as a route-runner. With Buffalo implied for 27-plus points and no dominant WR alpha, Josh Allen should keep funneling intermediate work and red-zone looks to his second-year tight end.
Volume is finally matching preseason hype: 6-plus targets in six straight games, a season-best 10 looks last week, and snap share stabilizing around 66% now that the partially torn PCL is behind him.
The floor is quietly stable too. Even without a touchdown, Kincaid’s 58% catch rate on 7.5 targets per game during this six-week stretch still yields roughly 9 PPR points—acceptable for a position where half the league is streaming. If the Colts sell out to stop Stefon Diggs (or now Amari Cooper), the middle of the field becomes a buffet. And if the game stays close, Buffalo’s hurry-up package features Kincaid as the de facto big slot, ensuring usage doesn’t evaporate. Bank on 5-6 grabs, 65-75 yards, and a score; the only reason to pivot is if you roster one of the elite every-week studs like Travis Kelce or Sam LaPorta, and even then the matchup gap is wide enough to consider a flex splash.