Analyze Courtland Sutton's matchup for week 10
Sutton is a low-end WR2 play against a Raiders defense that has limited perimeter WRs; expect 5-7 grabs for 65-75 yards with a coin-flip TD.
The Raiders have allowed the 10th-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter WRs since Week 4 while running two-high safety looks at a 70% clip, a coverage that drops Sutton’s per-route efficiency to 1.70 YPRR and a 16% target rate. Division-game physicality and possible shadow coverage add extra difficulty, though Denver’s 19% target share and six red-zone looks keep his floor intact.
WR22 in PPG with a 19% target share, 31% air-yard share, 67 YPG and 2.17 YPRR; six red-zone and seven deep targets showcase his every-down role with Bo Nix, who leads the NFL with four game-winning drives and a 105.3 fourth-quarter passer rating.
Sutton’s bounce-back 2025 has been driven by unwavering volume and chemistry with a rapidly improving Bo Nix. A 19.3% target share and 31% air-yard share anchor his WR2 status, while a 24% first-read rate and team-leading six red-zone targets underscore his scoring upside. Nix’s league-best four game-winning drives and 105.3 fourth-quarter rating keep the offense functional in negative game scripts, a key reason Sutton has posted 67 yards per game and 2.17 YPRR despite facing frequent double-high shells.
The Raiders’ recent defensive tweak—two-high safety looks on 70% of snaps since Week 7—directly undercuts Sutton’s vertical game. Against that coverage his targets per route plummet to 16% and he averages only 1.70 YPRR, numbers that align with Las Vegas allowing the 10th-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter WRs over the last month. Division familiarity means the Raiders will likely mix inside leverage and physical press to force timing disruptions, and if they assign their top outside corner to shadow, Sutton’s median outcome drops further. Thursday-night division games historically trend lower scoring, so a 20-point ceiling hinges almost entirely on a red-zone look or broken play.
Still, sitting Sutton is tough for rosters lacking high-upside alternatives. His 19% target share provides an 8-10-point PPR floor even in a slog, and Denver has shown no hesitation feeding him in scoring territory. Expect six targets, five receptions and 65-75 yards with roughly 50% touchdown equity—stat line that lands him in the low-end WR2/high-end WR3 band. Start him in standard 12-team lineups or deeper leagues, but pivot to a high-ceiling option if you’re chasing points and have a WR in a plus matchup.