Analyze Colston Loveland's matchup for week 10
Loveland’s 6-118-2 eruption was backed by season-high usage and comes against a Giants defense that has bled TE production all year; fire him up as a low-end TE1 even if some regression hits.
The Giants enter Week 10 ranked in the bottom third of the league in fantasy points allowed to tight ends (7.0 per game, multiple TDs surrendered) and just gave up another TE score in Week 9. New York plays mostly zone coverages that leave the middle of the field vulnerable, and their linebackers have struggled with athletic pass-catchers who can win after the catch—exactly the skill set that Loveland flashed on his 58-yard game-winner last week. With Cole Kmet still in concussion protocol, Loveland projects for 80-90% of the Bears’ 12-person snaps and red-zone work, giving him both a safe target floor and spike-week ceiling against a defense that has yet to hold an opposing TE under 40 yards since Week 5.
Snap share finally overtook Kmet in Week 8, exploded for 6-118-2 in Week 9 when Kmet exited, and now sits as the TE15 overall despite essentially posting one game’s stats in a single afternoon.
Week 9 wasn’t a fluke—it was the culmination of a month-long usage climb. From Weeks 5-8 Loveland’s routes run climbed from 48% to 72%, culminating in the first game all season in which he out-snapped Kmet (56 to 38). When Kmet left with a concussion, that role ballooned to 91% of snaps and 7 targets, four of which came in the final two drives with the game on the line. The Bears clearly trust the rookie in high-leverage moments, and his 4.48 speed plus 6’6”/245-lb frame create mismatches that New York’s linebackers simply don’t have the athleticism to contain. Even if Kmet is cleared, expect Loveland to retain the move-TE role that keeps him on the field for 2-minute drills and red-zone packages.
Historical context matters: only five rookie tight ends in the Super Bowl era have posted 100+ yards and multiple touchdowns in a game, and each saw sustained usage afterward. Ditka (1961), Shockey, Heap, Ebron, and Pitts all averaged 14.3 PPR points over their next four starts, proving that when a first-year TE flashes that ceiling, the coaching staff keeps feeding him. Shane Waldron’s offense already leans on 12-person sets at the seventh-highest rate (28%), so opportunity isn’t contingent on game script. The Giants’ defense has allowed a TE touchdown in four straight contests and gives up 13.2 yards per reception to the position, fourth-most in the league. That combination of volume and efficiency sets a realistic 4-6 catch, 50-70 yard floor with better than 40% chance of a score.
Regression talk is fair—no one expects 20+ fantasy points weekly—but tight end is a wasteland in 2025; only six TEs are averaging double-digit points. If Loveland settles into a 70% version of his Week 9 usage he’ll still sit around TE8-10 the rest of the way, a league-winning outcome for a player likely still available on waiver wires. Start him confidently as a low-end TE1 in Week 10 and continue riding the breakout until the snaps or matchup dictate otherwise.