Analyze Chris Olave's matchup for week 10
Olave’s rapport with new QB Tyler Shough is non-existent (4 targets last week), the Saints are in development mode, and Carolina’s secondary quietly stifles WRs—sit him for safer options.
The 1-7 Panthers appear vulnerable, but their corner duo of Jaycee Horn and Donte Jackson has limited opposing WRs to the fourth-fewest fantasy points thanks to bracket coverages that funnel everything away from the alpha receiver. With the Saints committed to Tyler Shough’s on-the-job training, Olave projects to see continued double-teams and minimal volume in a run-heavy, conservative game plan. The matchup paper advantage evaporates when you factor in New Orleans’ schematic shift and Carolina’s tendency to erase the opponent’s top target.
After averaging nearly 10 targets a game with Spencer Rattler, Olave crashed to a season-low 4 looks in Week 9, catching 3-57 and ceding target share to Rashid Shaheed, Juwan Johnson and Alvin Kamara.
Chris Olave’s early-season target hog role vanished the moment Tyler Shough took over under center. The rookie quarterback is still processing NFL defenses, resulting in a more distributed passing tree and quicker, safer throws that rarely funnel to the outside vertical threat Olave provides. In Week 9 the chemistry issues were glaring: Shough looked to his check-downs and secondary receivers, leaving Olave running twilight routes against bracket coverage for minimal reward. Expect that trend to continue while the coaching staff prioritizes Shough’s development over force-feeding their most talented wide-out.
New Orleans’ macro situation compounds the problem. At 1-7 the franchise has shifted into evaluation mode, leaning on Alvin Kamara and rookie runner Devin Neal to shorten games and mitigate turnovers. Head coach Kellen Moore has dialed back the pass volume and air-yard aggression, stripping Olave of the high-percentage slants and deep shots that once buoyed his floor and ceiling. Even in positive-looking on-paper matchups, a low-volume, ball-control offense caps the weekly upside of every pass-catcher not named Kamara.
Carolina’s defense is the final nail. Despite the team’s record, the secondary has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers by consistently rolling safety help toward the opponent’s top threat. Jaycee Horn travels with WR1s, and defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero loves to shade a robber or cloud corner over the top, producing contested catches and low YAC opportunities. Until Olave re-establishes a target floor or the Saints open up the playbook, he profiles as a boom-or-bust WR4 whose bust probability outweighs his name value. Bench him for steadier options with stable quarterback situations and plus matchups until further notice.