Analyze Chirs Olave's matchup for week 10
Bench Chris Olave in Week 10—his targets have collapsed to a season-low four with rookie QB Tyler Shough under center, Carolina allows the fourth-fewest fantasy points to WRs, and the Saints are in rebuild mode.
Carolina’s defense has quietly become a WR graveyard, surrendering the fourth-fewest fantasy points to wideouts and eliminating the deep shots that are Olave’s lifeblood. With the Saints now starting developmental rookie Tyler Shough, Olave’s target share fell to a season-low four in Week 9 while Rashid Shaheed became the preferred option. Add in a division-rivalry slugfest between two eliminated teams and you have a perfect storm for another dud.
Since returning from the 2024 concussion that ended his season, Olave has mustered only 32-400-1 on 44 targets (5.6 PPG) and saw a season-worst 4 looks in Week 9 as the passing offense pivoted to Shaheed.
The underlying metrics paint an even bleaker picture than the box scores. Olave’s air-yards share has dropped from 42 % in Weeks 1-4 to just 22 % since Week 5, and his average depth of target has fallen below 10 yards for the first time in his career, neutering the vertical element that once made him a week-winning WR. With Shough’s time-to-throw ranking third-slowest among qualifying quarterbacks, the Panthers’ top-tier pass-rush (11th in pressure rate) is likely to force quick check-downs toward the backs and tight ends rather than allowing routes to develop downfield.
New Orleans’ offensive line, already down two starters, will face a Carolina front that has generated the sixth-highest hurry rate over the last month. That pressure has translated to production: opponents have thrown 40-plus yards downfield only four times against the Panthers all season, the fewest in the league. Given Olave’s aDOT has plummeted and he’s seen only two such targets since Week 5, the big-play ceiling that once justified riding out slumps is effectively gone.
Finally, game script works against volume-based optimism. Both offenses rank bottom-five in pace and situation-neutral pass rate, and with the Saints at 2-7 and the Panthers at 3-6, there is little incentive for either coaching staff to open up the playbook. Expect a run-heavy, clock-drilling script that caps total pass attempts in the 48-52 range, making a 6-7 target outing for Olave the realistic ceiling rather than the floor. Until Shough demonstrates rapport or the matchup softens, Olave belongs on fantasy benches.