Analyze Ceedee Lamb's matchup for week 10
Lamb can’t help you in Week 10; stash him and fire him up as a top-five WR in Week 11 against a Raiders defense that keeps bleeding points to opposing WR1s.
Lamb and the Cowboys are off in Week 10, so the only move is to bench him or slide him into an IR slot. The silver lining is the schedule: coming out of the bye he draws a Raiders secondary that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to outside wide receivers and has given up 200+ yards or multiple TDs to three different WR1s over the last month. With ten targets a game since returning from his ankle issue, Lamb’s elite volume plus the extra week of rest sets up a smash spot in Week 11 and a rest-of-season ceiling that remains top-three at the position.
Since returning from the ankle injury in Week 7 Lamb has averaged 10 targets and 89 receiving yards per game, re-establishing himself as Dallas’s unquestioned alpha while the deep shots get funneled to George Pickens.
Lamb’s post-bye breakout is set up by both usage and matchup. Over the last three weeks he owns a 27 % target share and a 30 % air-yards share—numbers that historically translate to WR1 overall upside when paired with Dak Prescott’s 295-yard-per-game pace in neutral or positive scripts. The Raiders play man coverage at the seventh-highest rate but generate the league’s third-lowest pressure rate, giving Prescott the clean looks he needs to feed Lamb on quick in-breakers and slot fades. Vegas has allowed 17.9 yards per reception to outside receivers this year, and with no top-30 graded corner per PFF (Nate Hobbs 64th among 131 qualifiers), Lamb will see shadow coverage from a corner group that has already surrendered 7 TDs to wide receivers over the past four weeks. Off the injury report and with an extra week of rest, Lamb’s snap share should jump back above 95 %, the threshold where he averages 22.4 PPR points per game since 2022. Expect 10–12 targets, 110+ yards, and a ceiling of two scores as the Cowboys come out of the bye with playoff seeding on the line.