Analyze Caleb Williams's matchup for week 10
Caleb Williams is white-hot after a historic Week 9 (280-3 plus a receiving TD) and draws a Giants defense that’s hemorrhaging 21.6 QB fantasy points and 212 rushing yards to quarterbacks. Fire him up as a locked-in top-12 play.
New York has been a fantasy funnel for QBs all year, allowing the 9th-most points to the position (21.6 per game) and the 3rd-most rushing yards (212) and 2nd-most rushing TDs (4) to quarterbacks. Williams’ rediscovered mobility and a full-strength supporting cast (Moore, Odunze, breakout TE Colston Loveland) line up perfectly against a Giants secondary that’s already given up 13 passing scores and ranks 30th in pass defense.
After a shaky start, Williams has ripped off three straight useful-to-elite outings—172/1 vs. NO, 285 vs. Baltimore, and the monster 280-3 plus 22 and a receiving TD in Cincy—culminating in the first multi-pass-TD, multi-reception, receiving-TD game in NFL history.
The light has flipped on at the exact right time. Chicago’s offensive line is finally stable, rookie RB Kyle Monangai is keeping defenses honest, and Williams’ chemistry with Colston Loveland produced the game-winning 58-yard score that signaled the offense’s full maturation. The Giants’ pass rush ranks middle-of-the-pack, their linebackers have struggled with QB contain, and they’ve allowed the 5th-most 20-plus-yard completions—an ideal recipe for Williams’ improvisational, big-play style. Even November weather at Soldier Field can’t dampen this spot; Williams’ home passer rating (94.2) dwarfs his road mark, and forecasts show manageable conditions. Project him for 275 passing yards, 2.5 TDs, 35 rushing yards, and a 50-50 shot at another rushing score—good for 24-26 fantasy points and low-end QB1 numbers. After a year-plus of waiting, the Caleb Williams breakout is no longer a fluke—it’s a trend. Keep him locked into lineups until further notice.