Analyze Cade Otton's matchup for week 10
Cade Otton is a locked-in TE1 streamer this week: he’s averaged 5.5 targets with a 68 % catch rate since Week 5, plays every-down snaps, and faces a Patriots defense allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to tight ends including six TDs in nine games.
Tampa Bay is a 6.5-point home favorite, so positive game script should keep the offense balanced and create 6–8 looks for Otton. New England’s linebackers and safeties have repeatedly blown middle-of-the-field coverage, especially in the red zone where they’ve already surrendered six tight-end scores. With Mike Evans banged up and the Bucs’ WR depth thin, Otton’s 19 % target share since Week 5 is likely to hold or grow.
Upward: four straight games of 5+ targets, 68 % catch rate, 2.14 yards per route run, and virtually every offensive snap.
Cade Otton has quietly become Baker Mayfield’s safety valve, logging a 19.2 % target share since Week 5—top-15 usage at the position. His 2.14 yards per route run in that span places him among the elite, and he’s played all but two snaps, underscoring an every-down role that is gold for a position plagued by part-time players. The Patriots enter Week 10 hemorrhaging production to tight ends: 10th-most fantasy points per game, six touchdowns allowed, and consistent coverage busts between the hashes. With Tampa Bay favored by nearly a touchdown, the Bucs should control tempo and keep the ball in the red zone, giving Otton the 5-7 targets and touchdown upside required for a TE1 week. Expect a floor of 4-6 receptions (especially valuable in PPR) and a ceiling that already flashed in Atlanta when he found the end zone twice. In a stingy bye-week landscape, Otton offers the rare combination of secure volume, plus matchup, and health that makes him an easy plug-and-play.