Analyze Ashton Jeanty's matchup for week 10
Jeanty’s upward-trending usage (138 yards vs. CHI) and 3 TDs in his last four games offset a tough Denver run D; his 2.5-catch floor keeps him a viable FLEX.
Denver ranks 10th vs. the run (95.1 yds/gm, 6 TDs allowed) but yields 4.8 YPC when backs reach the second level. Thursday altitude and a tired Broncos front seven could let the Raiders’ clear RB1 exploit that inefficiency late.
After opening at 2.0 YPC, Jeanty has averaged 4.6 YPC the last four weeks, posting 487/3 rushing and 133/3 receiving through eight games.
The rookie’s arrow is pointing up: his snap share has been 70-plus percent every week since Week 3, and OC Luke Getsy has increased his route rate to nearly 55%—a rarity for a primary early-down back. That receiving usage (20 catches on 25 targets) provides a 6-8-point PPR floor even if Denver bottles him up on the ground. The Broncos’ 4.8 YPC allowed is inflated by chunk gains when linebackers Josey Jewell and Alex Singleton over-pursue stretch plays; Jeanty’s improved decisiveness and Boise State track record of breaking tackles align with the exact lane Denver leaks. Mile High’s thin air historically favors the offense with fresher legs in the fourth quarter, and the Raiders are 4-4 with playoff urgency—expect 18-20 touches. The offensive line is the wild card: LG Dylan Parham has graded 20 points higher the last two weeks, and if RG Alex Leatherwood can duplicate last week’s 78 PFF run-block grade, Jeanty will hit the second level often enough to top 60 scrimmage yards and 3.5 receptions. Bank on a 14-16-point PPR week with touchdown equity; that’s low-end RB2 territory ahead of committee backs in negative scripts.