Analyze Alvin Kamara's matchup for week 10
Despite facing a middle-of-the-road Panthers run defense, Kamara’s collapsing volume, scoreless streak, and New Orleans’ league-worst offense make him a high-risk, low-reward fantasy play in Week 10.
Carolina has ceded 531 rushing yards to RBs through nine weeks (15th-most) and could be without key interior defenders, creating a theoretical plus-matchup. The Saints, however, are 5.5-point road underdogs with an implied total under 17 points, forecasting negative game script that has already neutered Kamara’s rushing workload in 2025.
Since Week 3 Kamara is averaging 6.1 half-PPR points per game, has zero touchdowns, and has logged single-digit touches in two of his last three outings.
Kamara’s 3.6 YPC and season-long inability to eclipse 18 receiving yards illustrate a player whose burst and tackle-breaking ability have eroded at age 30. Behind a reshuffled offensive line now missing center Erik McCoy and with defenses daring Spencer Rattler to beat them, Kamara is seeing stacked boxes on early downs and ceding passing-down work to cheaper satellite backs. The Panthers’ middling run-defense numbers are inflated by a few explosive long runs; they actually rank ninth in rushing success rate allowed and have permitted only two RB touchdowns in their last five home games. Combine that with New Orleans’ NFL-low 14.0 points-per-game road average and Kamara’s dwindling red-zone opps (five touches inside the 20 since Week 2), and the floor is catastrophic. Even in a week riddled of byes, alternatives like Tyler Allgeier, Kenneth Gainwell, or a waiver-wire committee back offer safer volume and higher touchdown probability. Keep Kamara on your bench—or, in 10- and 12-team leagues, consider an outright drop for a player with an ascending role.