Analyze Alec Pierce's matchup for week 10
Pierce is a viable FLEX play this week after posting 6-115-0 on 13 targets in Week 9 and drawing a Falcons defense that has hemorrhaged deep passes all season; the boom-or-bust profile keeps him in the WR3/FLEX tier.
Atlanta’s secondary has been one of the league’s most generous units to outside receivers, ranking bottom-third in yards per catch and long touchdowns allowed. Pierce’s 16.1-yard average depth of target aligns perfectly with the Falcons’ tendency to concede explosive plays. With the Colts in must-win mode at 4-5, game script should keep Daniel Jones throwing and Pierce running vertical routes against a cornerback group that has already surrendered seven 100-yard receivers in 2025.
Volume is finally trending up—Pierce has seen double-digit targets in two of his last three games and turned his season-high 13 looks into 115 yards last week.
Pierce’s arrow is pointing up at the right time. After languishing as a situational deep threat for most of the year, he has commanded 28 targets over the past three weeks, signaling that Shane Steichen is making a concerted effort to feature his 6’3" speedster. The 50 pass attempts against Pittsburgh confirm that negative—or even neutral—game scripts will funnel volume Pierce’s way, and Atlanta’s offense is potent enough to keep the Colts in catch-up mode. The Falcons play man coverage at the sixth-highest rate, and Pierce’s 4.41 speed stresses isolated corners on go routes and deep comebacks. When Jones has time (Atlanta’s pass-rush ranks 22nd in pressure rate), Pierce wins vertically; his six catches of 25-plus yards since Week 7 are tied for top-15 among WRs. The risk is role-related inconsistency: Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs still siphon red-zone and slot work, so Pierce’s weekly floor is essentially zero if the deep ball isn’t there. Temper expectations in PPR—he’s a 4-6 catch receiver—but the 65-85 yard range with legitimate 40-yard-bonus upside makes him an acceptable FLEX dice roll in 12-team leagues and a priority streamer for teams dealing with bye weeks or injuries.